Little is expected of the Nevada Wolf Pack this season. Little should be. Much is expected of the SMU Mustangs, perhaps too much.
Neither of those narratives will be wholly confirmed in Week Zero, but our SMU vs Nevada predictions and free NCAAF picks expect a high-scoring affair, but for just one team, as we get to kickoff at 8:00 ET on Saturday, August 24.
SMU vs Nevada prediction
My best bet
Over 55.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
My analysis
There are different ways to approach this game all with the expectation that SMU should win easily. What was once nearly a four-touchdown spread has fallen to -24.5 this week, creating some conceivable value in backing the Mustangs at the best August number available.
But a Week Zero blowout could become optically closer on the scoreboard in the closing minutes if SMU trots out its defensive reserves. That is far from a certainty, but it is reason to avoid that spread as a best bet. In fact, that thought only encourages my best bet.
The Mustangs beefed up their offensive line this year to be ready for Power Four play. They did not bring in transfers that necessarily conjure up Playoff dreams, but they are far superior to the usual AAC or Mountain West roster. They should be able to push around Nevada, particularly given the Wolf Pack ranked No. 119 in defensive expected points added per rush against last season, meaning opponents usually improved their chances of scoring when they ran against Nevada. And its defensive line’s interior got only weaker this offseason.
Once SMU is up, and it will be up, it may not ease off the gas. Head coach Rhett Lashlee said this week that he expects backup quarterback Kevin Jennings to play. When Preston Stone was injured last year, Jennings acquitted himself well, completing 43 of 71 passes for 394 yards and two touchdowns in the final two games of the year, the AAC title game and the bowl game. Jennings added 130 yards on 23 rushes (sacks adjusted), a 5.65 yards per carry average.
Lashlee knows what he has in Jennings, and he also knows he may need more out of him if he is forced into action again. Even if SMU is up handily, Jennings will run the genuine offense for a few drives.
When the Mustangs send in their defensive reserves, some newfound Nevada success would be natural. When SMU turns to its offensive reserves, some continued Mustang success is the ambition. That combination should evoke an Over to start the season.
SMU vs Nevada same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 55.5 points
Nevada team total Under 14.5 points
Under 29.5 first-half points
Nevada’s offense is going to struggle this season. It returns four starters, including just two offensive linemen. SMU was driven by its defense a year ago, and that side of the ball should not be underrated just because quarterback Preston Stone is a better-known name.
It was a borderline top-30 defense last season, and it beefed up its defensive line in the offseason. The Wolf Pack offense does not do anything particularly well, and the Mustangs’ defense should pick up where it left off.
This counterintuitive same-game parlay creates a massive payout by betting on a game flow of an early and sizable lead for SMU followed by both teams working on their offenses in the second half.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
SMU vs Nevada odds
SMU vs Nevada live odds
SMU vs Nevada opening odds
- Spread: SMU -22.5 | Nevada +22.5
- Moneyline: SMU -2,300 | Nevada +1,060
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 | Under 53.5
SMU vs Nevada spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened in June with SMU favored by just 22.5, climbing through June and July to peak at -27.5 in mid-August, but buyback showed up this week, perhaps simply thinking four touchdowns were too many for Week Zero.
- Back in early June, the total hit the market at 53.5, similarly ticking up through the summer, all the way to 57.5 just a week ago, before correcting this week to 55.5.
- Catching that total below 56 is crucial, given the obvious nature of eight touchdowns equaling 56. This best bet loses plenty of value if the total returns to 56.5.
SMU vs Nevada betting trend to know
In its last six games with Preston Stone in the lineup, SMU cleared the total in five of them last season. Find more college football betting trends for SMU vs Nevada.
SMU vs Nevada game info
| Location: | Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-24, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSSN |
SMU vs Nevada latest injuries
SMU vs Nevada weather
Temperatures are expected to be in the high-50s at kickoff, with winds around 10 mph and no expected precipitation.
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
