There are some stud starters on the diamond today. Paul Skenes, Corbin Burnes, and Dylan Cease just to name a few.
To me, Luis Severino isn’t one of them, although I think the MLB odds are confusing him for one following his complete-game shutout last time out. All that screams to me is value.
I break down that and two other MLB player props I love for Thursday, August 22.
MLB props for August 22
- Mikolas u17.5 outs (+115 at bet365)
- Alvarez o1.5 TB (+135 at bet365)
- Severino u17.5 outs (+145 at bet365)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Miles Mikolas Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
The St. Louis Cardinals got a rare win over the rival Milwaukee Brewers last night, evening up their series with a 10-6 win. But I’m expecting some payback from the National League Central-leading Brew Crew, in the form of a beatdown on Cards starter Miles Mikolas.
It hasn’t been a great season for the Cardinals veteran right-hander. Mikolas is pitching to a 4.46 expected ERA while surrendering a .277 expected batting average to opposing hitters. Those rank in the 29th and 10th percentiles among MLB pitchers and it’s been even worse lately.
Mikolas has had an August to forget. The 35-year-old is pitching to a 9.22 ERA and is giving up a .949 OPS over three starts this month and he probably doesn’t want to be rusty heading into this matchup with the Brewers.
For starters, Milwaukee has been solid against righties all season, ranking sixth in batting average, ninth in OPS, and 10th in wRC+. Second, they have had plenty of success against Mikolas. The Brewers have tagged Mikolas for eight runs on 15 hits in 10 2/3 innings over two starts against him this season. Current Milwaukee batters have a .280 xBA and a .479 xSLG vs. Mikolas.
To me this all adds up to a shorter outing for Mikolas. His outs-recorded prop is sitting at 17.5, a number he’s stayed below in three straight starts and in one of the two meetings against the Brewers this season.
On top of that, our Covers Prop Projections have Mikolas at 16.5 outs for this matchup, meaning our MLB picks are getting a run of value at a great price.
Prop bet #2: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases
We should have known not to write off the Houston Astros that early in the season. But the starting pitching improved, and they now looked poised to win their seventh American League West crown in the last eight years.
Oh, I don’t know if you’ve heard of him, but this guy Yordan Alvarez has been a big part of the turnaround as well.
Air Yordan looks like one of the scariest players in baseball. No pitcher wants to face this guy. He enters tonight’s matchup against the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles with a .307 batting average, a .946 OPS, 25 home runs, and 66 RBI, and he’s been tearing the cover off the ball this month.
Alvarez is hitting .377, with a .377 average, and a 1.182 OPS, which includes nine extra-base hits over 17 games in the month of August.
Now, a matchup with Baltimore ace Corbin Burnes could scare some bettors off Alvarez, but I just think it’s giving us a little extra value.
Burnes enters this game in a bit of a slump, pitching to a 9.00 ERA and surrendering a .897 OPS over his last three starts. And while Burnes has been very good during his first year with the O’s, it’s still a little concerning to see his ability to miss bats has diminished pretty drastically this season.
On top of that, Yordan has fared pretty well against Burnes in the past, going 2-5 with those two hits being dingers throughout their careers. That’s good for a .395 expected batting average and a 1.458 expected slugging.
Yordan has eclipsed 1.5 total bases 11 times in his last 16 games and at this price, him to do so again is a five-star play per our Covers Prop Projections.
Prop bet #3: Luis Severino Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
New York Mets starter Luis Severino is coming off a complete-game shutout. He dominated the Miami Marlins over nine innings allowing just four hits and striking out eight.
But that start is perfectly emblematic of Severino’s first season with the Mets. Who knows what you’re going to get from him? It’s been that inconsistent. Hell, in his four starts prior to that one, he pitched to an ERA of 8.00 and was tagged for a 1.028 OPS.
So, when I see Severino’s outs recorded prop sitting at 17.5 and the Under priced at +145 for tonight’s road matchup against the San Diego Padres, all I can really see is value.
Severino’s overall numbers paint that of an inconsistent season. He ranks in the 57th percentile in expected ERA, the 51st in opponent expected batting average, and the 25th in strikeout rate and now he has to deal with the Padres.
San Diego has been slugging in the second half, ranking third in batting average and wRC+, and fifth in OPS since coming out of the break. The Pads have also handled right-handers well all season long leading the MLB in batting average, while ranking sixth in OPS and third in wRC+.
So, this is a really tough matchup for a guy who before his complete-game shutout hadn’t lasted more than five innings in four straight starts. Basically, that one good start is giving us a really good number here.
On top of that, our Covers Prop Projections have Severino pegged at 16.6 outs making the Under at this price a five-star play.
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Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups:
