Camden Yards will host a showdown between a pair of American League teams with World Series aspirations tonight, as the Houston Astros visit the Baltimore Orioles for the first of this four-game set.
The Orioles are amid a 2-4 slide and starter Corbin Burnes is looking to rebound from his worst outing of the season. Our Astros vs. Orioles predictions and MLB picks are calling for a Baltimore bounceback against Houston righty Spencer Arrighetti.
Astros vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Orioles team total Over 4.5 (+106 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
It’s the perfect storm for the Baltimore Orioles bats to heat up and have a big day at the dish, with Houston Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti serving up a 12.4 barrel percentage and 45.1 hard-hit rate across his past eight starts.
The Orioles have averaged 5.0 runs across their past seven games despite a 23rd-ranked .257 BABIP that lags well behind their .290 season-long mark. Arrighetti also sports a confidence-shattering 4.53 ERA with nine homers and 17 walks allowed during that eight-start stretch.
Baltimore ranks fifth with a .329 wOBA and second with a .196 ISO against right-handed arms this season. The Orioles also sport a sixth-ranked .337 wOBA and eighth-ranked .186 ISO since the All-Star break.
Additionally, the Houston bullpen has been incredibly lucky in August, with a tidy 2.73 ERA fueled by an unsustainable second-lowest .230 BABIP and second-highest 84.5 strand rate. The Astros' 4.20 bullpen xFIP ranks 20th in baseball for the month — and statistical correction looms.
I also value Arrighetti’s outs recorded total seeing notable action to the Under, and there's also a numbers edge with the +106 Pinnacle odds. The Orioles are trading at -105 to go Over 4.5 runs through bet365, which attaches a sneaky positive expected value of 5% to the +106 Pinnacle price.
Astros vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Orioles -1.5
Orioles team total Over 4.5
Gunnar Henderson 2+ hits + runs + RBI
Hiccups happen and I value the long-standing consistency of Baltimore starter Corbin Burnes. His 3.13 xFIP ranks fourth among 139 qualified starters over the past four seasons, after all. I expect him to navigate the righty-heavy Houston lineup well enough to give the Orioles a huge edge with Arrighetti’s highlighted struggles.
Turning to Gunnar Henderson, he’s cashed this Over in seven of his past 11 games while going 14-for-43 at the dish with seven runs, nine RBI, and a mammoth 1.036 OPS. The superstar also sports an elite .403 wOBA and .284 ISO against right-handed pitchers for the year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Astros vs Orioles odds
Astros vs Orioles live odds
Astros vs Orioles opening odds
- Moneyline: Houston +1.5 (-150) | Baltimore -1.5 (+125)
- Run line: Houston +135 | Baltimore -160
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Astros vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a small move to the Houston side of this moneyline. Pinnacle opened at Astros +142 and Houston is trading at +137 as of Thursday morning.
- The odds adjustment has been identical at bet365, with Houston receiving a five-cent move in the odds.
- This total has seen action to the Under through both Pinnacle and bet365. Both shops opened with an 8.5 number and are trading at 8 as of Thursday morning with the Over 8 carrying the higher vig.
Astros vs Orioles trend
The Orioles have averaged 5.0 runs across their past seven games. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Orioles.
Astros vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Spencer Arrighetti (5-11, 5.20 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Corbin Burnes (12-5, 3.10 ERA) |
Astros vs Orioles latest injuries
Astros vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
