The Cleveland Guardians knotted their season series over the host Detroit Tigers with a huge Monday night victory.
Guardians righty Gavin Williams gets the nod today, and my Guardians vs. Tigers predictions and MLB picks expect neither offense to get much going on Tuesday, July 30.
Guardians vs Tigers prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (+100 at DraftKings)
My analysis
For the third time in less than a month, Cleveland Guardians righty Gavin Williams takes the bump against the Detroit Tigers.
Williams is 0-2 against Detroit, but the flame-throwing 25-year-old has surrendered only three earned runs across 11 1/3 frames. Williams whiffed 14 Tigers while issuing three free passes and one home run, and he’ll have the additional benefit of facing a weakened Detroit lineup due to injury and bereavement.
That Tigers lineup has scored 16 runs across its last five while striking out at a 27% clip. They strand the fewest runners in scoring position (3.0) but that’s only because the Tigers are 24th in hits and rely on the long ball to score runs, which may not happen today against Williams.
By comparison, the Guardians score the 10th-most runs from the visitors' dugout (4.47) — but last night’s eight-run outburst was only the second time across their last 11 away games they’ve plated 5+ runs. We could see their low-scoring ways return this afternoon against what will be a bullpen game for Detroit.
The Tigers haven’t announced today’s starter, but manager A.J. Finch will hope to get some solid innings out of him. Detroit have two starters on the trading block and the rest of the Tigers’ bullpen is gassed, but their ‘pen does boast a 4.10 ERA since the All-Star break. The Guardians have scored only 17 runs across their past five against Detroit.
I like the Under today. Williams has been other-worldly in a small sample size on the road, and in a larger sample size against Detroit. Cleveland hanging a big number on the road last night was an aberration for them.
Guardians vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Gavin Williams Over 5.5 strikeouts
Guardians moneyline
I like the Under, but I also like the Guardians to win today, and that’s because I expect Williams to continue his mastery over the Tigers.
Williams pitched good enough to win both of his previous starts against Detroit, and that’s because he’s striking out nearly 10 Tigers per nine frames. Detroit hitters have struck out 60 times across their past seven games while Williams has cleared his strikeout prop in three of his five starts.
Williams and the bullpen should tame the Tigers, and the Cleveland bats should score enough runs to win this game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Guardians vs Tigers odds
Guardians vs Tigers live odds
Guardians vs Tigers opening odds
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (+100) | Detroit -1.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Cleveland -175 | Detroit +145
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Guardians vs Tigers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Guardians opened as -176 favorites and have won three of their last four meetings with the Tigers.
- The Tigers are trading as high as +148 and are 1-3 at Comerica Park since the All-Star break.
- Over/Under markets are reporting 8.5 runs. Over 8.5 is trading at a juiced -120 or higher while the Over/Under is 0-4 across the last four Williams starts.
Guardians vs Tigers trend
The Under is 6-1 in Guardians last 7 road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Tigers.
Guardians vs Tigers game info
| Location: | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Great Lakes, Bally Sports Detroit |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Gavin Williams (0-3, 4.50 ERA) |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | TBD (X-X, X.XX ERA) |
Guardians vs Tigers latest injuries
Guardians vs Tigers weather
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