The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets are set to wrap up a three-game series on Sunday Night Baseball. An exciting evening awaits us at Wrigley Field as oddsmakers can barely pick a winner themselves.
Odds have moved up and down, and both teams have seen themselves as small favorites over the last 12 hours. The Mets are playing some of their best baseball of the season and will be eager to win a series after two uneven head-to-head games. However, the Cubs will be hoping its 8-1 win yesterday was the offensive explosive it needed to break through and catch a hot streak themselves.
Read on for my Mets vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks below.
Mets vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Javier Assad Under 4.5 strikeouts (+108 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Everything that Chicago Cubs right-handed hurler Javier Assad is doing is sustainable. Despite troubling metrics, he holds a sub-3.00 ERA against an expected ERA of just over 4.00. One of those other contradictions is found in his strikeout rate.
Assad has the highest strikeout numbers he’d had throughout his career if the season ended today, but it’s hard to figure out why. Accompanying that is the lowest swing and whiff rate of his career. Something that doesn’t add up, and usually, there's some course correction when that happens. I expect at least some regression today and am taking him Under 4.5 strikeouts as my best bet. The value is highly enticing.
Part of what has made this pricing is how often the New York Mets have been striking out lately.
They’ve seen a significant rise in their season average that puts them near the bottom of the league, around 8.00 per game to just over 13 over the last three games. However, I'll overlook some of this as more outliers and matchup-based than anything else. Speaking of matchups? Today's a pretty decent one for the Mets hitters.
Assad leans on the sinker heavily, as it makes up just over a third of his pitching arsenal. In addition, he produced a batting average of .178 on that pitch so far this season.
However, that pitch may be less successful today. The Mets have many strong sinker hitters, with J.D. Martinez, Harrison Bader, and Tyrone Taylor leading the way, all slugging well above the league average against that pitch. If Assad is forced to get off that pitch, some metrics suggest his time in the game could be short as the rest of his arsenal is relatively lackluster. Thus, there’s certainly a fair chance that Assad is run from the game too quickly to hit this mark.
If not, I’ll trust a Mets team that's patient at the plate with its swing rate and chase rate, both ranking in the Bottom 10 of baseball. Another issue for Assad this season has been a walk rate that sis in the Bottom 10% of baseball.
I’ll also trust the Mets to be what they’ve been the majority of the season and not just lately. That’s a team that keeps the strikeouts relatively low. I projected this number to be 3.6 strikeouts for Assad, so I’m thrilled to get it at this price tonight.
Mets vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Javier Assad Under 4.5 strikeouts
J.D. Martinez Over 1.5 total bases
We’re pairing J.D. Martinez to go Over his total base prop with our best bet. It aligns with the overall thinking of our above analysis. Martinez is one of the best sinker hitters in baseball, with a batting average of .440 against such pitches. He leads the Mets in hard-hit rate against the pitch, as well. He should be able to take advantage of a very good pitching matchup this evening.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Cubs odds
Mets vs Cubs live odds
Mets vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+152) | Chicago +1.5 (-182)
- Moneyline: New York -110 | Chicago -110
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Mets vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- The odds have flipped here as New York became a slight favorite in multiple books. Since then, Chicago has become a consensus favorite on the moneyline.
- The total has taken some Over steam as well. It’s moved up a half run since opening and was taking just over 60% of bets as of publication.
- New York has been playing well lately. It’s gone 8-2 in its last 10 games and netted bettors a profit of +5.4 units in that stretch.
- The same cannot be said about Chicago, which was just .500 in that period and yielded a slight loss to bettors.
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Mets vs Cubs trend
The Mets have gone Over the total in 21 of their last 31 away games (+12.10 units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cubs
Mets vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Sunday, 6-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Luis Severino (4-2, 3.52 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Javier Assad (4-2, 2.75 ERA) |
Mets vs Cubs latest injuries
Mets vs Cubs weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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