The Toronto Blue Jays have been behind the eight-ball against the Baltimore Orioles for most of this week, but they somehow still have a chance the split the series this afternoon following last night’s walk-off win.
The Orioles are handing the ball to Cade Povich for his MLB debut against Yusei Kikuchi, and my Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks see runs being plentiful as a result.
Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-103 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Though the pitchers took over in yesterday’s 3-2 nail-biter, this series has largely been dominated by the Baltimore Orioles hitters, and I’m picking offense to be the storyline again this afternoon.
Firstly, this is a big spot for Orioles rookie lefty Cade Povich. He’s been lighting it up in the minors, but there are sure to be nerves in his first start in the majors as he faces the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.
The Toronto Blue Jays strung together nine hits last night, including a timely three-hit effort from Justin Turner, and I see the hosts playing their part in the scoring here.
Then there’s Yusei Kikuchi, who’s coming off tough outings in his past two starts. The Pittsburgh Pirates jumped on him early over the weekend and he only lasted three innings in his prior appearance, a 14-11 loss to the Detroit Tigers. That’s hardly ideal form to bring into a matchup against a heavyweight Baltimore offense that’s tied for first in home runs this year (92).
The Orioles have an impressive .271 average against lefties this season, with Adley Rutschman and Austin Hays leading the way, and I expect them to come out swinging. Even if Kikuchi gets on a roll, there are question marks around a Toronto bullpen that was busy last night and is muddling through without injured closer Jordan Romano.
With Baltimore mashing eight home runs through the first three contests in this series, I feel good about picking the Over and counting on the visitors’ deep lineup to keep the scoreboard ticking along.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have failed to score in the first inning in 27 straight games, but this afternoon is a golden opportunity to break that unwanted streak and put pressure on Povich before he settles.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs (+150 at PROLINE+)
Despite going 0-for-4 last night, Guerrero Jr. stands out as the likeliest Blue Jay to jumpstart the offense here, and he’s admirably put the team on his back over the past month.
Yesterday’s stat line snapped a run of six hits in his prior four contests, and he’s fresh off a whopping .917 OPS in May.
Vladdy has been steady against left-handers in 2024, with 10 of his 27 RBIs coming against southpaws, and I like these odds for Guerrero Jr. to win the battle against Povich (and the Baltimore bullpen) to drive in a run.
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Orioles vs Blue Jays odds
Orioles vs Blue Jays live odds
Orioles vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 | Toronto -1.5
- Moneyline: Baltimore -104 | Toronto -104
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Orioles vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Orioles are on the road with a rookie starter and the line has been bouncing back and forth, with Baltimore sitting as a -118 favorite early this morning before dropping back to -106.
- But Povich posted a 1.29 ERA in Spring Training and he’s earned this shot in the big leagues. With the Orioles’ potent offense and their 18-8 mark away from Camden Yards this year, you could certainly make the case for the visitors being favored today.
- Baltimore is also 5-2 in the past seven meetings between these teams, while the Blue Jays have lost each of Kikuchi’s last five starts overall.
- Though the Under has been a winning ticket in seven of the team’s last 10 matchups, including last night, the Orioles average five runs per game and I see the Over as the value play.
Orioles vs Blue Jays trend
The Orioles have cashed in the F5 team total Over in 14 of their last 19 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Orioles vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, 6-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, Sportsnet |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Cade Povich (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yusei Kikuchi (2-5, 3.66 ERA) |
Orioles vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Orioles vs Blue Jays weather
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