The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies in the rubber match of their three-game series on Sunday afternoon at Triust Park. The Braves are favorites on the MLB odds board after a 5-1 win on Saturday night.
The Phillies took advantage of three Atlanta errors en route to an 8-6 win on Friday night before the Braves evened the series.
Find out why my Phillies vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, July 7 think runs will be at a premium.
Phillies vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies have seen a bevy of starting pitchers impress this season and Michael Mercado joined that list last week. The rookie spun five innings of two-hit, one-run ball in his first MLB start on Tuesday against the Cubs. He’ll get the ball again this afternoon in Atlanta.
Mercado has stellar numbers at Triple-A Lehigh Valley this season, posting a 1-1 record with a 1.71 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 47 1/3 innings across 14 games (10 starts). He kept that going in his first major league start earlier this week.
The Atlanta Braves pose a tough threat for Mercado and the Phillies, but Atlanta hasn’t been swinging the bats too well recently. They’ve scored just 30 runs in their last 10 games, with three runs or fewer in seven of those contests. The Over is 1-8-1 in that span.
Atlanta will also have an impressive starter of its own on Sunday afternoon in the form of Reynaldo Lopez. The veteran righthander is 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 15 starts this season. He’s allowed more than two earned runs just once this season and that came back in Seattle on April 30. In fact, he’s allowed more than one earned run in just six of his 15 games.
That doesn’t bode well for a Phillies team without Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto. Trea Turner is doing all he can, as is Alec Bohm, but the bottom half of the Philadelphia lineup leaves much to be desired.
Phillies vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Phillies +1.5
I'm keeping my same-game parlay pretty simple for this one. The Phillies hold a nine-game lead over the Braves, which shows the gap between the two squads this year. Even without a few of their top bats, the Phillies are 4-2 in their last six games and 6-4 in their last 10.
This should be a low-scoring game and the Phillies should be able to keep it close, if not win outright.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Braves odds
Phillies vs Braves live odds
Phillies vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 | Atlanta -1.5
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +150 | Atlanta -164
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Phillies vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Phillies opened around +165 but are down to between +145 and +155 as of late Saturday night.
- The Braves have gone from nearly -200 at opening to as low as -170.
- The total hasn’t moved since opening at 8.5 with the Over 8.5 priced at -105 at DraftKings and Under 8.5 at -105 at FanDuel, so shop around for the best odds.
Phillies vs Braves trend
The Over is 15-27-2 in Braves home games this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves
Phillies vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Michael Mercado (1-0, 1.50 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Reynaldo Lopez (6-2, 1.83 ERA) |
Phillies vs Braves latest injuries
Phillies vs Braves weather
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