Phillies vs Giants Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

One of the more intriguing matchups on Memorial Day will take place in the Bay Area, where the red-hot San Francisco Giants will return home to face the streaking Philadelphia Phillies. Both teams have found plenty of success at the dish of late, but the same can’t be said for their respective pitchers who have struggled to gain footing amidst injury-riddled seasons.

Can Blake Snell return to form and get the better of Taijuan Walker in this one? Let's dive right into it with our Phillies vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks below.

Phillies vs Giants prediction

My best bet
Giants moneyline (-122 at FanDuel)

My analysis
This is a tricky pitching matchup to read, so let’s start by laying out where both offenses stand. The Philadelphia Phillies rank eighth in baseball in wRC+ over the last two weeks while the San Francisco Giants sit third. Neither team has struck out a whole lot at under 18% during this time, and while the Giants have been slightly better in the walk department, both teams are right around or above 10%.

That should mean the pitcher with the more gruesome outlook should fall and I think that’s Taijuan Walker. He’s lost his ground ball touch in 2024, inducing them at just a 30% clip after making such great strides in that area in recent years, and in doing so, he’s allowed a bloated .277 expected batting average.

Walker has been starved for punchouts and once again has struggled to limit walks, and in a ballpark that rewards a barrage of hits as opposed to a few masterful home run strokes, I think he’s the guy we want to fade.

Blake Snell’s expected stats may scare you off here, as well as his walk rate which remains poor, but one promising number is his whiff rate, which once again ranks among the best in baseball. It hasn’t amounted to a ton of strikeouts quite yet, but he did strike out five Pirates last time out in just 3 1/3 innings, with walks ultimately being his undoing.

I think the strikeouts are coming and with a very high ground ball rate of over 50%, Snell should reasonably be expected to improve upon his ghastly 2024 numbers. I think the road to recovery will start here, with the eighth-best defense by outs above average helping him out around the punchouts he should be racking up.

Phillies vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)

Giants moneyline

Blake Snell 6+ strikeouts

Matt Chapman 2+ total bases

+354 at FanDuel

We touched on Snell’s strikeout touch potentially coming back with the way he’s pitched of late, and I like him to break through here in what’s ultimately a somewhat tough matchup. He's struck out five on two occasions and was pushing for the Over on this total before exiting his last start rather quickly. With swings and misses coming at a high rate, I think he gets to six.

Then, I’ll back the red-hot Matt Chapman to keep hitting. He’s hit an insane .298 against finesse pitchers this season and has hit .412 over his last nine games with nine extra-base hits. Walker should be serving up a ton of contact — particularly of quality — and Chapman should be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Phillies vs Giants odds

Phillies vs Giants live odds

Phillies vs Giants opening odds

• Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-205) | San Francisco -1.5 (+170)
• Moneyline: Philadelphia -105 | San Francisco -115
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Phillies vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Giants opened as -102 underdogs on the moneyline and have been bet steadily, all the way out to -121 as of this writing.
  
  
• The total opened at 7.5, and after reaching as high as 8.5, has settled back down at 8. It very briefly dropped to 7.5 early on Monday afternoon. 
  
  
• According to DraftKings, a strong 82% of the bets and 87% of the handle are on the Phillies.
  
  
• The Over has commanded 78% of tickets and 81% of the money. 

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Phillies vs Giants trend

The Giants have gone Over their team total in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.65 units / 48% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Giants

Phillies vs Giants game info

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