The Pittsburgh Pirates (43-47) are trying to keep within reach of the Wild Card race as they open a road series against the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers (53-38) on Tuesday night.
My Pirates vs. Brewers prediction for tonight’s matchup sees Milwaukee starter Colin Rea not putting up much of a fight.
Read on for July 9’s best MLB picks, and find out why Pittsburgh could find itself in good position early.
Pirates vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Colin Rea Under 4.5 strikeouts (+104 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Colin Rea will take the mound on Tuesday night for the Milwaukee Brewers as they open their second-to-last series before the All-Star break, and that bodes well for Milwaukee. At 8-2 with a 3.34 ERA this year, Rea has been a steady and reliable arm for a rotation that has lost key names over recent years.
To that point, the Brewers have won in four of his last five starts, and Rea has given up more than two earned runs in just one start since May 20th. But when looking at the underlying metrics, Rea may be due for some massive regression in the near future.
Rea ranks in the 50th percentile or better in just extension (67th), walk rate (62nd), and ground ball rate (54th). None of those marks are particularly eye-opening, and they aren't particularly impressive categories relative to rank.
For comparison, his barrel rate (25th percentile) and hard-hit rate (38th percentile) demonstrate that he should be giving up more hits and runs. This is further conveyed by his expected batting average (seventh percentile) and expected ERA (11th).
His fastball isn't impressive (25th percentile in velocity), and he isn't good at getting batters to whiff (fifth percentile) or chase outside the zone (12th), which leads to his low strikeout rate (14th).
Rea is due to get knocked around and sent off the mound early at some point, and now is a great time to capitalize, given that his market suggests he's a far better pitcher than his underlying metrics say he is.
Pirates vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Colin Rea Under 4.5 strikeouts
Pirates moneyline
Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 total bases
In Rea's one outing against the Pittsburgh Pirates this year, he allowed three earned over six innings en route to a 8-6 loss. It wasn't a bad outing by any means, but it was one of the five losses the Brewers have taken across his 17 starts this year.
If the Pirates can chase Rea off the mound early enough, Milwaukee's bullpen should struggle a tad with their long relievers (Bryse Wilson and Jakob Junis) having pitched on Saturday and Sunday.
And one player in particular who may help get to Rea is Bryan Reynolds, who, for his career, is 5-for-9 with two doubles (.556 BA, .778 SLG). His total bases line sits at 1.5 tonight with some solid juice on the Over.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pirates vs Brewers odds
Pirates vs Brewers live odds
Pirates vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-137) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+123)
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +162 | Milwaukee -178
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-101) | Under 8.5 (-111)
Pirates vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee is one of MLB's best home teams this year, with its 67.5% win percentage ranking third-best in all of baseball.
- The Brewers have also gone 48-37-6 to the Over this year, good for an Overs rate of 56.5%, third-highest on the year. At home, that rate improves to 63.9% (23-13-4), good for second-best in that split.
- The Brew Crew have gone Under in four of their last six however, and have gone Over a total of 8.5 just twice in their last 10 games. The total for tonight's game is set at 8.5.
- For those more comfortable with run lines, the Pirates have covered the +1.5 run line as a road favorite 65.6% of the time this year (21-11).
Pirates vs Brewers trend
Pittsburgh has gone 45-41-4 to the Under this year, good for the 11th-highest rate. But, in games with a total of 8.5 or more, it has gone 22-17-2 to the Under. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Brewers
Pirates vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet Pittsburgh, Bally Wisconsin |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Martin Perez (1-4, 5.28 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Colin Rea (7-2, 3.61 ERA) |
Pirates vs Brewers latest injuries
Pirates vs Brewers weather
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