Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been on fire over the last couple of months and my MLB picks for today are betting on the Toronto Blue Jays slugger to keep mashing.
See why I'm also backing Astros starter Ronel Blanco and fading Orioles right-hander Dean Kremer with my three favorite MLB player props for Wednesday, August 14.
MLB props for August 14
- Dean Kremer Under 17.5 outs (-115 at bet365)
- Ronel Blanco Under 2.5 ERs (-150 at DraftKings)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 TB (+100 at bet365)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Dean Kremer Under 17.5 outs
The Baltimore Orioles are sending Dean Kremer to the mound for tonight's game against the Washington Nationals. Kremer has a 4.70 ERA through 16 starts and he's coming off an ugly outing against the Jays where he surrendered five runs through 4 1/3 innings.
Kremer has struggled over the last couple of months, pitching to a 5.73 ERA with an OBA of .256 and 25 walks through 44 innings. With those control issues combined with a barrel rate that ranks in the bottom 10th percentile, it's no surprise that he doesn't typically pitch deep into games. The O/U for Kremer's outs today is set at 17.5 and he has eclipsed that number just three times in his last 14 starts, averaging 15.4 outs per start during that span.
The Nats have a weak lineup on paper but have produced at a better clip than you might assume. They are 14th in the majors in batting average (.244) while ranking 16th in scoring (4.31 runs per game). They've been even better since the All-Star break, batting .266 with an OPS of .737 while plating 5.0 runs per game.
Whether Kremer gets knocked around early or issues too many walks, my MLB picks expect manager Brandon Hyde will give him the hook before he finishes the sixth inning.
Prop bet #2: Ronel Blanco Under 2.5 earned runs
It's been a tale of two seasons for Houston Astros righty Ronel Blanco. Through his first 14 starts, Blanco had an incredible 2.34 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a .164 OBA. In his last eight starts, he has pitched to a 4.36 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP.
That said, even during that recent cold spell, Blanco allowed fewer than 2.5 earned runs in five of eight, and his OBA of .217 during that span is still impressive. He'll be in a good spot to rediscover that early-season magic today on the road against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa is a Bottom-6 team when it comes to strikeout rate, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. All of those poor hitting metrics are compounded at pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field where the Rays average just 2.33 runs per game through the first six innings.
Prop bet #3: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made the All-Star game in each of the past two seasons, but his numbers paled in comparison to his 2021 campaign when he led the majors in home runs (48), OPS (1.002), and total bases (363). Guerrero seems to have rediscovered that MVP-caliber form in 2024, slashing .320/.391/.548 while ranking eighth in the majors with 252 total bases.
Over the last two months, Guerrero has been incredible, slashing .376/.422/.741 with 17 homers and 19 doubles in 50 games. Today, Vladdy Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays face off against the Los Angeles Angels and starter Tyler Anderson.
Anderson has an impressive 2.99 ERA through 23 starts but his expected ERA of 4.20 is significantly worse and he gives up a ton of fly balls. He also has a middling 3.97 ERA with an OBA of .247 at home and Guerrero will have the platoon advantage. This is a five-star play from THE BAT X which is projecting 2.3 total bases for the Jays slugger.
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Today’s MLB games
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