Two teams badly needing a win will face off at Fenway Park tonight as the Texas Rangers visit the Boston Red Sox to begin a three-game series.
Texas has lost seven of its last nine games, likely sinking their playoff hopes, and are underdogs in Boston. I'm siding with chalk in my Rangers vs. Red Sox predictions.
My MLB picks break down this battle between struggling teams on Monday, August 12.
Rangers vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Red Sox moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)
My analysis
You wouldn’t expect a visit from the defending World Series champions to be a welcome sight for the Boston Red Sox, but that’s where we are in 2024. Boston is still in the AL wild-card race and will need some wins against the disappointing Texas Rangers to avoid falling further out of postseason position as we move into the season's home stretch.
While the Red Sox have lost four straight, they still have an offense that can slug it out with anyone. Boston is averaging 4.94 runs per game, the fourth-highest total in the majors this year. Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran anchor a deep lineup filled with left-handed bats.
That sets up an interesting matchup against Rangers starter Tyler Mahle, who made his first start for Texas last week after returning from Tommy John surgery. The righty had a solid debut against the Houston Astros, allowing just one run over five innings of work.
While that looked like a good appearance for the 29-year-old, Mahle only struck out two and still has to show he can consistently finish off MLB hitters in his return from injury. That will be critical against the Red Sox, who are hitting .264 against righties this year but do have a weakness for the strikeout, doing so 9.69 times per game.
Boston will put 25-year-old Brayan Bello on the mound. Bello has struggled in 2024, putting up a 5.16 ERA for the season and largely being bailed out by the Red Sox offense to put up a 10-5 record. But after a rough start, Bello has been solid as of late. Since the start of June, Bello is 3-0 with a more reasonable 4.46 ERA, allowing three or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts.
Bello should continue that streak against a Rangers lineup that has never quite figured things out this year, which will leave the Red Sox lineup to do what it has done all year long.
Rangers vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Red Sox moneyline
Over 9.5
Brayan Bello Over 4.5 strikeouts
I expect Boston to have a solid night against the struggling Rangers at Fenway, and that forms the basis of my same-game parlay. Along with taking the Red Sox to win outright, I’ll also take the Over at 9.5 runs. The Red Sox have hit the Over in eight of their last nine games, while Texas has also done so in three of its last four outings.
But while I expect runs, I also think Bello will go deep enough to keep up his run of reasonable starts. That means I’m taking him to hit the Over on his prop of 4.5 strikeouts. Bello has hit this total in five of his last seven games and should get to this modest number again tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Red Sox odds
Rangers vs Red Sox live odds
Rangers vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-170) | Boston -1.5 (+145)
- Moneyline: Texas +120 | Boston -140
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-120) | Under 9.5 (+100)
Rangers vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rangers have lost nearly 14 units on the moneyline this year, while the Red Sox are up about 2.5 units for bettors on the season.
- Boston has a 14-7 record in Bello’s starts this year. Mahle has made only one start this season, with Texas losing that game.
- The Over has a 61-49 record when Boston plays this season. The Under has the 60-54 advantage in Rangers games.
- Boston is playing to an average total of 9.62 runs per game, with Texas coming in with an average of 8.72.
Rangers vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox are 6-1 in Bello’s last seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Red Sox.
Rangers vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Monday, 8-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Tyler Mahle (0-1), 1.80 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Brayan Bello (10-5, 1.80 ERA) |
Rangers vs Red Sox latest injuries
Rangers vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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