Just when it feels like the Toronto Blue Jays are building momentum,m something comes along to dash it. Most recently, it was an Adley Rutschman walk-off homer in the bottom of the ninth in their latest loss.
However, the MLB odds like their chances of starting this weekend’s series against the visiting Tampa Bay Rays off on the right foot.
Rays vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays first five -0.5 (-112 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Wednesday’s loss to the Orioles was made all the worse because it looked like a win all the way to the bottom of the ninth. That’s baseball, but the Toronto Blue Jays will have a chance to bounce back when they open a three-game set with the visiting Tampa Bay Rays on Friday night.
For starters, their best bats are starting to come around. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hits in 14 of his last 15 games, good for a .397 average and a .970 OPS, while Bo Bichette is currently in the middle of a six-game hitting streak where he has a .435 average and a 1.109 OPS.
Vladdy, Bo & Co. also have a nice matchup against Rays’ starting pitcher Tyler Alexander. The left-hander is struggling to find consistency this season and as a result, he ranks in the 21st percentile in expected ERA and 29th percentile in opponent expected batting average.
While the Blue Jays’ hitting numbers aren’t great, they have better splits against lefties, ranking 14th in batting average and 13th in OPS and wRC+ when they dig in vs. southpaws this season.
Toronto counters Alexander with Chris Bassitt. Things have not been smooth sailing this season for the veteran right-hander. The man with eight pitches needs more of them to start working. He has a 4.95 xERA while surrendering a .279 opponent xBA.
At the same time, he has quality starts against the Yankees and Royals and is coming off a start where he limited the white-hot Phillies to two runs on three hits over 6 1/3 innings. He also has great career numbers against current Rays players, limiting them to a .209 xBA and a .360 xSLG.
The Blue Jays need some positive vibes heading into the May long weekend. I’m betting they get off to a good start and hold the lead through five innings.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs (+155 at PROLINE+)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s recent resurgence is one of the more positive things going for the Blue Jays.
As noted, he’s hitting nearly .400 over the last 15 games, and while we're waiting for more home runs, he's having strong at-bats and coming up clutch for his team, driving in nine runs over that stretch.
Vladdy has great splits against lefties, hitting .345 with a .969 OPS this season. Plus, 10 of his 19 RBI have come against southpaws. And despite being just 2-11 in his career vs. Alexander, he's hit the lefty hard with a .340 xBA and a .642 xSLG.
Our Covers Prop Projections have Vladdy sitting at 0.7 RBIs, meaning the Over has value tonight.
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Rays vs Blue Jays odds
Rays vs Blue Jays live odds
Rays vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 -150 | Toronto -1.5 +125
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +150 | Toronto -180
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Rays vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as big -180 home favorites but early bettors are siding with the Rays as the line has come down to Toronto -165.
- The Blue Jays and Rays split their four-game series at Tropicana Field to open the season.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and that's where it remains as of Friday afternoon.
- The Blue Jays struggling offense and good starting pitching has made them a solid Under bet at 17-25 O/U but they played to the Over in three of the four games of the last series against the Rays.
Rays vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have covered the first-five run line in 17 of their last 28 games for +4.65 units and a 14% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays
Rays vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, 5-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Tyler Alexander (1-2, 5.45 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Chris Bassitt (3-5, 5.06 ERA) |
Rays vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Rays vs Blue Jays weather
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