Rays vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Odds: No Bombs in Bronx

The Yankees picked up another win on Friday night to make it five in their last six, and they’ll send one of their top arms to the hill on Saturday to try and secure a series win over rival Tampa Bay. With the Rays’ ace heading to the mound, where does the value lie?

Let’s break down Rays vs. Yankees in our MLB picks and predictions for Saturday, May 13.

Rays vs Yankees odds

Rays vs Yankees predictions

I always take many numbers into account when handicapping a game, but it’s impossible to ignore here that, in a battle of left-handed starters, one team has a clear edge.

That team would be the Rays, who rank first in baseball in wRC+ to lefties. They have a ridiculous .263 Isolated Power within the split, hitting .303 in the split with a .903 OPS. Those are insane numbers, but given the way that Tampa Bay likes to create platoons around the field, it makes sense that the team would be dominant against all pitchers.

The Yankees are 15th in the same category, and against lefties some lackluster bats like Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, Aaron Hicks, and Oswaldo Cabrera are forced into the lineup while the likes of Jake Bauers and Willie Calhoun take a seat. It’s sad that we have to even mention those five names considering this team has the second-highest payroll in history, alas this is the truth. They’re simply not a great offense and they’re even worse against lefties.

We’ll continue this discussion in just a moment, but this is the majority of why I like the Rays in this spot. They’ve got an advantage on offense and will be trotting out the better pitcher as well.

My best bet: Rays moneyline (-140 at DraftKings)

Rays vs Yankees moneyline analysis

Shane McClanahan is the starter on Saturday for Tampa Bay, and it’s hard to say enough good things about him. To this point he owns just a 1.76 ERA in 46 innings, pitching around a 10.8% walk rate with a 31.4% strikeout rate and a spicy .193 expected batting average. He’s gotten a boatload of outs on the ground and has flashed whiff rates on the changeup and slider that are well above league average.

The Yankees rank 24th against the slider and 22nd against the changeup in terms of run value per 100 pitches, and on the other side of the coin, the Rays have destroyed fastballs, which is where Nestor Cortes has been hurt the most this year. The lefty has been a bit unlucky, coming in with a low .211 expected batting average and a 3.48 xERA against a 4.74 ERA, but that’s what happens when you strike out fewer hitters.

At any rate, I see the Rays as a strong play on the moneyline given their ability to hit lefties and hit Cortes’ go-to pitch.

Rays vs Yankees Over/Under analysis

I also think the total is a half-run too high, and would recommend grabbing the Under 8 runs if you’re unwilling to bet on the Rays straight up to win this game.

The fact remains that McClanahan is in an absolute smash spot against a Yankees lineup featuring Kiner-Falefa in the middle of the order, and with the Yankees hitting so poorly over the last week or so. While Cortes is in a worse spot and may see his fastball knocked around a bit, he can take solace in the fact that Tampa hasn’t been all that great at hitting the cut fastball, which Cortes also likes to throw.

I do look at a .186 xBA on his fastball next to a .257 batting average and think this guy has gotten very unlucky, which is why I like buying low a bit on Nestor here. The fact remains, though, that the Rays are elite against lefties and against fastballs, so even if his luck turns, I’m not sure it’s going to mean he gets out of this start without allowing a run. I just think he can keep the proceedings at bay and avoid things getting out of hand.

Rays vs Yankees game info

Starting pitchers

Shane McClanahan (7-0, 1.76 ERA): he left-hander hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any start this season and hasn’t allowed more than five hits in any given outing, either. He’s struggled in the walk department mainly, issuing four free passes in six shutout innings over the Orioles last time out.

Nestor Cortes Jr. (3-2, 4.74 ERA): Cortes had his worst outing in years when he allowed seven earned runs in Texas a couple of weeks ago, but he responded in his last outing with five innings of two-run ball in a win over the Athletics last turn in the rotation.

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The Under is 5-0 in the Yankees’ last five Saturday games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees

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