It’s an AL East showdown at Camden Yards with the Baltimore Orioles hosting the Boston Red Sox in their series opener of a four-game set between the division rivals Thursday.
Boston will send Nick Pivetta to the hill and Baltimore will counter with rolling righty Zach Eflin. Our Red Sox vs. Orioles predictions and top MLB picks are calling for the two offenses to put runs on the board during Thursday’s matchup.
Red Sox vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
Boston Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta needed the breather after being shelled for a 5.26 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across his prior 10 starts. The rest may help, but Pivetta and the Sox have a tall task at hand. The Baltimore Orioles rank third in baseball in wOBA (.331) against right-handed pitchers and fifth overall with a .344 mark in the second half.
Baltimore starter Zach Eflin has won three straight and spun a 2.92 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across his past six outings. Still, Eflin’s 3.73 xFIP during the stretch is notably higher than his ERA and the Boston offense ranks second in wOBA (.333) against righties.
The Red Sox also rank third in the majors in wOBA (.360) out of the All-Star break, so I’m anticipating Eflin having trouble navigating the Boston lineup, too.
Additionally, while both teams have several inexperienced hitters, both lineups have a handful of hitters who have faced both Pivetta and Eflin. The weather forecast is also calling for it to be warm Thursday evening and Camden Yards should play hitter-friendly with limited wind.
Finally, both teams have trended to the Over for prolonged stretches. Baltimore has hit the Over in 44 of their last 74 games and Boston has gone Over the number in 35 of their last 52 games.
Red Sox vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Orioles moneyline
Over 8.5
Nick Pivetta Over 1.5 earned runs
I give the Orioles the pitching edge in this matchup and Pivetta's Over 1.5 earned runs aligns with the game total also going Over. Baltimore has won five of the six meetings between the two teams this season, and as noted, Eflin has won three straight overall and three straight against the BoSox while pitching for the Rays last season.
The Orioles also have a lower bullpen ERA and xFIP, and there has been steam to the Baltimore side of this moneyline.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Orioles odds
Red Sox vs Orioles live odds
Red Sox vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-180) | Baltimore -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Boston +120 | Baltimore -140
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Red Sox vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- Baltimore has received consistent action, with the odds for the Orioles steepening at both Pinnacle and bet365.
- I also value that following multiple slight buybacks on the Red Sox, the Orioles were steamed again at Pinnacle. Baltimore opened at -135 and is trading at -141 as of Thursday afternoon.
- There hasn’t been meaningful movement in the odds for this total through Pinnacle.
- The shop opened at 8.5 with identical -106 prices on each side, and it’s trading at a -103/-109 split as of Thursday afternoon. There has been a similar 5-cent move to the Under at bet365, too.
Red Sox vs Orioles trend
The Orioles have gone Over the total in 44 of their last 74 games (+17.05 units / 21% ROI) and the Red Sox have done so in 35 of their last 52 games (+18.40 units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Orioles.
Red Sox vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, MASN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Nick Pivetta (5-7, 4.44 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Zach Eflin (8-7, 3.83 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Orioles latest injuries
Red Sox vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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