The Minnesota Twins continue to look like a serious World Series contender as they head to Chase Field for the first game in a three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Twins are a -125 moneyline favorite by the MLB odds and will need the hot play of their young third baseman to continue in Arizona.
Find out where my best bets lie in my Twins vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks on Tuesday, June 25.
Twins vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Royce Lewis Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The return of Royce Lewis to the Minnesota Twins’ lineup has given them some extra pop at the plate this season. The 25-year-old played just one game on March 28 before missing all of April and May with a quad injury.
Since returning on June 4, he’s been one of the best bats in baseball. In 17 games this month, Lewis is slashing .328/.397/.797 with nine dingers and 12 extra-base hits.
He’s averaging three total bases per game and hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down with three homers in his last six games. His explosive pace should continue against the Arizona Diamondbacks and right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt.
The second-year starter has been inconsistent this season. He’s given up 85 hits and 11 home runs across 90 2/3 innings and has allowed at least five hits (with five homers) in each of his last five starts.
With Pfaadt struggling, he should be quivering at the sight of Lewis at the plate, especially with the way he hits the D-Backs starters’ top pitches. Pfaadt has three pitches that he uses more than 11% of the time and Lewis can hit ‘em all.
Pfaadt is using his four-seamer 35.2% of the time, and that’s a pitch Lewis has smoked throughout his career. He’s batting .300 with a .800 SLG against four-seamers this year, and if that’s too small a sample size, he hit .333 with a .815 SLG against them last season.
The other two pitches Pfaadt leans on are his sweeper (29.3%) and sinker (20.7%). But the 25-year-old won’t find relief by going to those against Lewis either.
The mashing third baseman is batting .500 with a ridiculous 1.250 SLG against sweepers this season and .333 with a .917 SLG against sinkers.
Even his changeup (10.1%) won’t do any good against Lewis, who’s batting .300 with a .600 SLG against them this year. Talk about a tough out.
Twins vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Royce Lewis Over 1.5 total bases
Carlos Correa Over 0.5 hits
Ketel Marte Over 0.5 hits
Lewis isn’t the only Twin who should be able to shell Pfaadt. Teammate Carlos Correa is having a nice season and he’s been obliterating four-seamers with a .333 average and .537 SLG. That should help him continue to rake in June, as he’s slashing .383/.422/.568 this month.
If Arizona is going to make this a game against those two, it’ll need Ketel Marte to keep flashing his power. He leads Arizona in total bases (147) and the slugger should be able to do some damage against Twins starter Joe Ryan.
Ryan predominantly uses his four-seamer (48.2%), a pitch Marte has been sending to the moon this season with a .337 average and .600 SLG.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Diamondbacks odds
Twins vs Diamondbacks live odds
Twins vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota -1.5 | Arizona +1.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota -115 | Arizona +106
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Twins vs Diamondbacks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Coming off back-to-back wins against the Oakland A’s, the Twins opened between a -115 and -133 moneyline favorite with most books now offering them between -120 and -130 against the Diamondbacks.
- Minnesota sits second in the AL Central this season with a 43-35 record while Arizona is third in the NL West at 38-40.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 8.5, but has since come down to between 7.5 and 8. Some books are offering the Under at even money.
- Minnesota is just 36-40-2 this season betting the Over, and Arizona isn’t much better at 37-39-2.
Twins vs Diamondbacks trend
The Twins have hit the team total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+8.40 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs Diamondbacks.
Twins vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSNO, ARID |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Joe Ryan (5-5, 3.13 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Brandon Pfaadt (3-6, 4.37 ERA) |
Twins vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Twins vs Diamondbacks weather
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