It's another edition of Sunday Night Baseball when the New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers wrap up a three-game series. It's also a special one being played at Journey Bank Ballpark in Williamsport, PA — the home of the Little League World Series.
The story remains the same for New York. The Bombers remain in a tightly-contested AL East race with the Baltimore Orioles. They'll look to do what few teams have done, and that's get after Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal. However, the impressive lefty will have other plans.
What's the best bet here? Read on for my free Yankees vs. Tigers predictions and MLB picks for August 18. And don't miss our Sunday Night Baseball player prop picks!
Yankees vs Tigers prediction
My best bet
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
One thing jumps off the page when looking at this matchup, and it's Aaron Judge.
Judge has had some impressive success against Tarik Skubal. In 11 career at-bats against the impressive lefty, Judge has a 1.637 OPS, two homers, and two RBIs. Sure, the sample size is small, but the data behind things makes sense here.
Judge is one of the best hitters against the game when facing southpaws. In particular, he has more power against them. He's now jumped to second overall among qualified players in isolated power against left-handed throwers and is just a little behind in hard-hit rate. That’s a bad omen for Skubal, no matter how impressive he's been this season.
What else stands out here is how much Skubal leans on his fastball. What makes him successful is the variety of pitches he throws, but lately, he's been trusting his fastball more.
Over his last three starts for the Detroit Tigers, it's made up nearly 45% of his arsenal. Not only is Judge the best fastball hitter in baseball, but he also ranks first in run value, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate.
I priced this number today at almost around -140. A talented pitcher who could have a very impressive day has given us some value on this number. In some ways, this will be best-on-best, and I'm taking the more established player in Judge in that duel every time. That holds even more true when the New York Yankees slugger is coming into this game off the back of two relatively quiet contests.
Yankees vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
Austin Wells Over 1.5 strikeouts
I'm going to pair Austin Wells Over 1.5 strikeouts with my best bet. I'm a big fan of this matchup for a few reasons, but one of the biggest is that it is a direct strength against a weakness.
The pitch that's produced Skubal's biggest whiff rate this season is the changeup. It's around 40%, which is good for one of the best in the league. Wells has really struggled against this pitch this season. He has the second-highest whiff rate among Yankees and the third-highest K rate. I'm expecting a lot of swings and misses from him tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Tigers odds
Yankees vs Tigers live odds
Yankees vs Tigers opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+155) | Detroit +1.5 (-188)
- Moneyline: New York -106 | Detroit -110
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Yankees vs Tigers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Until yesterday, New York had been on a nice win streak against the Tigers. The Yankees had won four straight head-to-head matchups over the Tigers.
- Though it is .500 over its last 10 games, New York has lost bettors just over two units in that stretch.
- Meanwhile, the Tigers have been as profitable as anyone in baseball during that stretch. Winners of seven of their last 10 games, bettors have won just over seven units backing Detroit recently.
- What's also been profitable in that stretch for the Tigers is the Under. In seven of its last 10 games, the Under has hit — much of the time quite easily.
Yankees vs Tigers trend
The Yankees have hit the Over in 50 of their last 78 games (+20.85 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Tigers.
Yankees vs Tigers game info
| Location: | Journey Bank Ballpark at Historical Bowman Field, Williamsport, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, 8-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Marcus Stroman (8-6, 4.01 ERA) |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Tarik Skubal (13-4, 2.57 ERA) |
Yankees vs Tigers latest injuries
Yankees vs Tigers weather
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