The Milwaukee Bucks made a choice this offseason to sacrifice proven defense for offensive variance. Unsurprisingly, their defensive rating is 5.3 points worse this season, and tonight that may prove more costly than ever against the Phoenix Suns with the home side installed as the favorite according to NBA odds.
The Suns have gone 12-5 with all three of Bradley Beal, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker in the lineup since Beal returned in late December. More precisely, in the 15 straight games the trio has played together since the first week of January, Phoenix has posted an offensive rating of 122.7 — a number that would sit atop the league for the season by a full bucket.
Trusting that offense against Milwaukee’s now-flawed defense leads my free NBA picks for the Bucks vs Suns on February 6.
Bucks vs Suns odds
Bucks vs Suns predictions
The Phoenix Suns offense is even better than it appears in the 15 games with Bradley Beal, Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker playing alongside each other. Remove the first two games of that stretch, a back-to-back in early January in which Phoenix lost both games, and the offensive rating jumps to 123.2.
To put that into context, the Pacers lead the NBA in offensive rating this season at 120.7. Only the red-hot Clippers can hang with the Suns these days, a hypothetical Western Conference playoff series that would drive TV ratings through the roof.
In those 13 games, Phoenix has hit the Over on its team total in eight of them, with three of those relative stumbles coming in back-to-backs. With a short bench supporting a star trio that has injury worries, both nights of a back-to-back are ripe for the Suns to watch their minutes.
In those 10 remaining games, Phoenix has averaged 5.5 points more than bookmakers anticipated. That's a healthy enough sample size and a significant enough edge to warrant notice.
Life should continue that way against the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. When the Bucks traded Jrue Holiday to pull in Damian Lillard, they raised their offensive ceiling but also doomed their defense.
As age and knee injuries have slowed Khris Middleton, he is nowhere near the wing defender he used to be. and Giannis Antetokounmpo has to spend too much energy on offense to be a two-way force every night. More often than not, the Bucks’ needed perimeter defender is Malik Beasley.
Please note, Malik Beasley is bad at defense.
With the Suns’ trio of perimeter threats, Milwaukee’s roster has no viable path to slowing all of them. And once one starts to cook, all will benefit. This game should feature a bounty of points from Phoenix.
My best bet: Suns team total Over 123.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Bucks vs Suns same-game parlay
Suns team total Over 123.5
Devin Booker Over 28.5 points
Booker Over 2.5 made threes
30% boost available
Using Overs on Booker’s points as well as on his made 3-pointers is the rare moment the sportsbook’s black box of algorithms doesn’t quite keep up with the correlation. Adding Over 2.5 made threes should not boost the parlay by 72.9% percent, but it does.
In the last five weeks — using Jan. 1 as a cutoff date merely to keep things simple — eight guards have scored more than 30 points against Milwaukee. In just 18 games, that’s a rough rate.
No offense to either of these, but Devin Booker is assuredly more potent than Devin Vassell (35 points) or Alec Burks (30).
Reach a bit below Booker’s points prop tonight, and Malik Monk, Kevin Huerter and Bennedict Mathurin all came within a bucket of what Booker needs to get to. Again, no offense to anyone, but D-Book is one of the league’s best scorers: they aren’t.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bucks vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
The Suns opened as only 2.5-point favorites on Monday evening, but that climbed to -4 overnight. Worryingly, Phoenix is only 6-8-1 against the spread in these 15-straight games with its star trio playing. Even if removing the six back-to-back worries, the Suns are only 5-4 ATS.
The total opened at 246 before dropping to 243.5 by Tuesday’s sunrise, rather surprising given Milwaukee’s track record and perhaps a sign of too much faith in Doc Rivers’ initial impact.
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Bucks vs Suns betting trend to know
Phoenix is 1-3 ATS at home in its last four games with all of Beal, Durant and Booker playing. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Suns.
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Bucks vs Suns game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 6, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Arizona's Family 3TV / Arizona's Family Sports |
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