Best Bulls vs Heat Player Props Tonight: Miami Puts Clamps on DeRozan

Prop bet #1: DeRozan Under 26.5 points

It's a do-or-die game for the Chicago Bulls, as they only need one win on the road against the Miami Heat to secure a spot in the playoffs and, I suppose, justify not being sellers at the trade deadline. I mean, it's not how I would view it, because they're never defeating the Boston Celtics in a seven-game series, but this is the path they have chosen. 

The Bulls desperately want to make it into the playoffs, and they will lean on their superstar to do so, but at 26.5, I'm betting the Under on DeMar DeRozan odds. Yes, he will see significant minutes because of the magnitude of the game, but his total is also higher than normal to account for this. DeRozan would typically trade around 23.5 points in the regular season, but on Friday, he's trading at 26.5. 

The reason why I like DeRozan to go Under his points prop is that I believe the Heat's shape-shifting zone that they like to play is a lot more disruptive to DeRozan's offensive game than to Coby White. DeRozan is someone who likes to get to his spots and operate in the mid-range with his jump shot and post-ups. The Heat's zone disrupts this because it blocks passing lanes and entry passes into the interior; you saw it with Joel Embiid on Wednesday. 

The Heat defense has a hard time containing a guard with speed, such as Tyrese Maxey or White. The Bulls will lean on their stars, and they will see elevated minutes, but DeRozan is still projected to go Under this total, even with a minutes projection of 40+.

DeRozan is projected to score 24.2 points on Friday against the Heat, which allows us to price the Under 26.5 points at -166, but it's available at DraftKings at -110.

DeMar DeRozan prop: Under 26.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Herro Under 25.5 points

Tyler Herro originally opened with a total of 23.5, but when the Heat officially ruled out Jimmy Butler and then Terry Rozier, we saw this total climb to 25.5 for Herro. At 25.5, give me the Under on Herro's points prop against the Bulls. 

Yes, Butler is out for the Heat, but the Heat aren't a team where all that usage completely switches to one other player. Butler's usage will be spread out among several players, such as Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. Herro doesn't need Butler out of the lineup to take more shots; he had 27 field goal attempts against the 76ers while Butler was still playing. 

I also like the Under on Tyler Herro odds of 25.5 points because I believe this is more of a Bam Adebayo game than a Herro game. Adebayo will be matched up against Nikola Vucevic, which is an offensive advantage for Adebayo. Herro should be looking to create for Adebayo and getting Bam the ball to take advantage of Vucevic's defense. 

The big question mark with this bet is whether Alex Caruso is playing for the Bulls and in what capacity. I think this total is too high for Herro either way, but if Caruso does end up playing, this gives the Bulls a point-of-attack defender who can suffocate Herro's offense. The Heat won't be looking to run actions that challenge Caruso, which could lead to lower usage for Herro. 

Herro is projected to score 23.4 points against the Bulls on Friday, which allows us to price the Under 25.5 points at -168, but it is available at DraftKings at -112. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 18%.

Tyler Herro prop: Under 25.5 points (-112 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Jovic Under 1.5 threes made

Nikola Jovic odds wouldn't necessarily catch my eye on a normal day, but after betting the Over on his points prop on Wednesday against the 76ers at 6.5 and watching him closely because of it, I have an opinion on another one of his bets on Friday. 

Give me the Under on Jovic's threes made prop, which is trading at 1.5 (-142) at DraftKings. Jovic was letting it fly from beyond the arc during the regular season when he started the final 20+ games for the Heat, but in the play-in game on Wednesday against the 76ers, he wasn't even looking at the rim. 

There were several possessions where Jovic caught the ball on the perimeter, was wide open for a 3-pointer, with the 76ers late to a closeout, and Jovic didn't even look to shoot. This is something I wouldn't have noticed if I didn't have the Over on his points prop. 

Maybe the lights were too bright for Jovic, who is only 20 years old, but we also saw Erik Spoelstra fade his minutes against the 76ers, which is another potential out to this bet because the lights will be even brighter for Jovic on Friday. 

The other reason I like the Under on this bet for Jovic is because of the injury to Butler. Jovic doesn't have much of an offensive game where he can create for himself. He's a 39.9% 3-point shooter who gets his shots off his teammates creating for him or being doubled. Without Butler, there's one less player who the Bulls will look to double, which will take away open threes for Jovic. 

Jovic is projected to make 1.2 3-pointers on Friday against the Bulls, which allows us to price the Under 1.5 threes made at -202, but it is available at DraftKings at -142.

Nikola Jovic prop: Under 1.5 threes made (-142 at DraftKings)