With five games to go, the Denver Nuggets still have some work to do to grab the No. 1 seed in the West, but they can boost their chances tonight against the Atlanta Hawks.
The Nuggets have wobbled without Jamal Murray over their last seven games and they slipped to a 102-100 loss against the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday despite a 36-point triple-double from Nikola Jokic — but the hosts are still big favorites here in the latest NBA odds.
Meanwhile, the Hawks are locked into a play-in spot but could still leapfrog the Chicago Bulls to host the No. 9 vs No. 10 clash. Atlanta had won six of its last seven contests before a 109-95 setback against the Dallas Mavericks last time out.
Check out my free NBA picks for the Hawks vs Nuggets for a closer look at this April 6 matchup.
Hawks vs Nuggets predictions
My best bet: Over 221.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
The Atlanta Hawks are trending towards high-scoring battles, with the Over sitting at 8-2 in their last 10 outings, and Nikola Jokic is the last player you want to face in a shootout. The MVP frontrunner is as good as it gets at finding the Denver Nuggets the best shot when defenses are scrambling back or in rotation.
This has been a tricky stretch for the Nuggets, but tonight’s matchup feels like a good spot for the hosts’ offense to rev up again, even without much production off the bench lately. That means another monster Jokic stat line and busy nights for Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr.
The Over has been a winning ticket in eight of the last 10 meetings between these teams, including Denver’s 129-122 victory back in December, and that’s where I’m looking for my best bet at Ball Arena tonight.
While Atlanta is missing Trae Young’s offensive spark, the visitors are still pouring in 118.8 ppg this season, and Dejounte Murray has embraced full control of the offense, averaging almost 27 points in March.
These teams are both in the Top 10 in field goals made per game, and I see the offenses showing up again here.
Hawks vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Over 221.5 points
Michael Porter Jr. Over 18.5 points
Clint Capela Under 10.5 rebounds
With Jamal Murray sidelined, it was reasonable to assume Michael Porter Jr.’s numbers would skyrocket. But the extra touches haven’t really translated to that kind of scoring bump... yet.
MPJ hasn’t reached the 20-point mark once during this stretch and he stumbled to a 6-for-18 night against the Clippers this week, on the heels of a 5-for-16 effort against the San Antonio Spurs.
And yet, a big scoring night remains in play as long as that volume continues, so I’m predicting a bounce-back game for Porter Jr. tonight. With Jokic putting open 3-pointers on a plate for him, I’m grabbing the Over.
I’m also leaning on the Jokic factor to take the Under on the Clint Capela rebounds prop. Capela is going to draw the assignment against the Joker and that’s a recipe for foul trouble keeping the Atlanta big man off the floor.
Capela has been busy on the glass lately, but he had 10 or fewer boards eight times in March and finished with just eight rebounds when these teams squared off earlier this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Hawks vs Nuggets odds and trends
Hawks vs Nuggets live odds
Hawks vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta +12 | Denver -12
- Moneyline: Atlanta +553 | Denver -726
- Over/Under: Over 221.5 | Under 221.5
Hawks vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Neither of these teams have been ATS darlings — but Atlanta’s 28-49 ATS record is on a whole different level of hopelessness
- I still prefer laying a 12-point spread with the hosts, who are 31-8 at Ball Arena this season
- Denver has won five of the last six meetings, covering the spread in each of those victories
Hawks vs Nuggets trend
The Hawks have hit the team total Over in 52 of their last 86 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Nuggets.
Hawks vs Nuggets game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado |
| Date: | Saturday, April 6, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Altitude, Bally Sports SE-ATL |
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