The Cleveland Cavaliers keep padding their place atop the Eastern Conference standings, riding an 11-game winning streak into tonight’s home stand with the Miami Heat.
Cleveland's coming off a one-sided win against the Chicago Bulls last night and even with the challenge of back-to-back contests, my Heat vs. Cavaliers predictions aren't shying away from laying the lumber with this red-hot side.
Here are my best NBA picks for this clash on Wednesday, March 5.
Heat vs Cavaliers prediction
My best bet
Cavaliers -12 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Cleveland Cavaliers have a tight turnaround tonight, having throttled the Bulls in Chicago last night, and are now traveling home to be back inside Rocket Arena for this 7 p.m. ET tipoff.
Luckily for the Cavs, they took care of business in the Windy City. Cleveland was up by as many as 24 points in the second half, allowing it to rest starters. On top of sitting down forward Evan Mobley for the game, the starting five maxed out at 30 minutes. That leaves plenty in the tank for this tilt with the Miami Heat.
The Heat limp into this matchup, with no Andrew Wiggins, Kel'el Ware, Nikola Jovic, or Jaime Jaquez. Adding to those injury concerns is a quad ailment for breakout guard Davion Mitchell, who is listed as questionable.
Miami is running out a mish-mash lineup in recent games but fighting to stay competitive. The Heat are 3-1 SU in their last four, with that lone loss in overtime to the New York Knicks, and boasting a 4-0 ATS mark in that span. This meeting with Cleveland, however, is a massive step up in competition.
Miami has scored wins against some bottom-tier teams in the East, but we’ve watched it come up short against legit contenders, with recent losses to Milwaukee, OKC, Boston, and a 20-point loss to the Cavaliers in their most recent meeting on January 29.
Cleveland is the best two-way team in the NBA and that’s been especially true during this winning streak. In their last meeting with Miami, the Cavaliers shot 54% from the field, piling on 68 points in the paint, while holding the Heat to 22 points or less in three of the four quarters.
The Cavs’ ability to flip from defensive stops to offense is tops in the NBA, boasting 1.2 points per play in transition. In the halfcourt, they throw their weight around with plenty of pick-and-roll.
That pokes at Miami’s soft spots. The Heat have had a tough time putting the brakes on transition teams this season (1.14 points allowed per play) and the thinning forward corps leaves them in a bad spot for mismatches against Cleveland when switching off those screens. Miami has had to wheel out veteran big Kevin Love to boost size, with the current rotation running no bigger than 6-foot-9 Bam Adebayo.
The Cavaliers have a net rating of +16.3 during this run and have lived up to the oddsmakers’ lofty expectation, covering the spread in seven of those contests (7-3-1 ATS). Cleveland is also up to the challenge when facing double-digit chalk, boasting a 14-8 ATS record when laying -10 or more this season.
Heat vs Cavaliers same-game parlay
Cleveland -11.5
Evan Mobley 10+ Rebounds
Darius Garland 20+ Points
The Cavaliers’ size will overwhelm a shorthanded and shorter Miami lineup, cruising to a one-sided win.
Evan Mobley has fresh legs with rebound projections around 10 boards, taking a Heat frontcourt down to two guys.
Darius Garland is great at scoring in transition and missed the last game with Miami. He’s forecast for close to 20 points tonight.
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Heat vs. Cavaliers score prediction
Cleveland 123, Miami 105
The Heat are undersized and outclassed against the Cavaliers, who have plenty of gas in the tank in this second of back-to-back games.
Heat vs Cavaliers odds
Heat vs Cavaliers live odds
Heat vs Cavaliers opening odds
- Spread: Miami +11 (-110) | Cleveland -11 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami +375 | Cleveland -500
- Over/Under: Over 227 (-110) | Under 227 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Heat vs Cavaliers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Books opened with Cleveland around an 11-point home favorite. That has since jumped to -12 with injuries stacking up for Miami.
- The total hit the board at 227 points and has slipped to 221.5 points, with those missing Miami pieces leaving this offense short-handed.
- According to Covers Consensus, 68% of picks are laying the points with the red-hot Cavaliers while 65% of total picks are taking the Over.
Heat vs Cavaliers trend
The Cleveland Cavaliers have covered the spread in 42 of their last 63 games (+20.00 Units/29% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Cavaliers.
How to watch Heat vs Cavaliers
| Location | Rocket Arena, Cleveland, Ohio |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Heat vs Cavaliers latest injuries
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