The Miami Heat head to Southern California tonight for a matchup with Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers at the brand-new Intuit Dome.
James Harden hasn’t been scoring the rock at a high level lately, and my Heat vs. Clippers predictions are expecting Miami to keep him at bay here.
Keep reading for my NBA picks for Monday, January 13.
Heat vs Clippers prediction
My best bet
James Harden Under 20.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
With Kawhi Leonard still getting back into the swing of things since making his season debut earlier this month, James Harden remains the main man for the Los Angeles Clippers. Although Norman Powell is averaging more points per game, Harden’s usage rate is a team-high 30.7%. He’s posting 21.4 ppg while shooting 33.9% from 3-point land.
However, “The Beard” is struggling lately. He’s averaging just 16 points per night in January so far and has hit the Under in points in four of his last six appearances. Harden is shooting below 35% from the field across his previous three games and scored just 16 in a blowout loss to the Denver Nuggets on January 8.
There’s more evidence to back up this bet, too. The veteran didn’t play well against the Miami Heat in 2023-24, averaging just 18 ppg in two outings. Miami is also considered a difficult matchup for point guards, as the Heat are allowing only 22.7 ppg this season to that position.
I’m banking on Harden having another quiet night at home.
Heat vs Clippers same-game parlay
James Harden Under 20.5 points
Norman Powell Under 3.5 made 3-pointers
Tyler Herro Over 22.5 points
Powell is having a career year in L.A., averaging 23.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.3 assists. He’s also shooting a stellar 43.7% from downtown, averaging 3.6 makes on 8.2 attempts per night. However, I’m going to focus on the Under on made threes tonight because his total is a little too high for my liking.
The UCLA product has hit the Under in triples in four of his last seven games. In January, he’s converting an average of just 2.5 treys per contest in four appearances so far. Yes, Powell is shooting 48% from long range at home, but he only had three made triples in two games versus Miami last season.
The Heat are also holding opponents to a 29% clip from downtown over their last three. They will contain Powell in this one.
While it was already obvious that Tyler Herro was emerging as the main option in South Beach, it’s even more solidified now with Jimmy Butler seemingly on his way out. Herro is averaging a career-high 23.8 ppg and has the highest usage percentage on the roster.
The ex-Kentucky star has cashed the Over in points in three of his previous four games, erupting for 32 on Saturday evening in a blowout over the Portland Trail Blazers. He’s averaging 24.5 points against Western Conference opponents and has been playing with a lot of confidence over the last week.
Herro will show out again tonight and play a key part in potentially helping Miami grab their fourth straight victory.
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Heat vs Clippers odds
Heat vs Clippers live odds
Heat vs Clippers opening odds
- Spread: Miami +6 | Los Angeles -6
- Moneyline: Miami +196 | Los Angeles -227
- Over/Under: Over 215| Under 215
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Heat vs Clippers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Heat have gone 17-20-0 ATS.
- L.A. has a 7-2-0 ATS record as a home favorite.
- The Under has hit in three straight meetings, but the Over cashed in seven straight before that.
- Covers Consensus picks have 57% in favor of the Clippers ATS, with 58% on the Over.
Heat vs Clippers trend
The Clippers have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games at home (+11.80 Units / 43% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Clippers.
How to watch Heat vs Clippers
| Location: | Intuit Dome, Inglewood, CA |
| Date: | Monday, 1-13-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSN |
Heat vs Clippers latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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