A non-conference clash between two teams flipped upside down after the trade deadline closes out the first half of the NBA schedule on Thursday night as the Dallas Mavericks host the Miami Heat in the final game before the All-Star break.
Miami, which sent disgruntled star Jimmy Butler to Golden State for Andrew Wiggins, is working in a new rotation but already had been living life without Butler for a while now. Stepping into that void is All-Star forward Bam Adebayo, who doesn’t just impact the game with his scoring and rebounding, but also his playmaking.
I look to the Bam’s assists market for my best Heat vs Mavericks predictions and NBA picks for February 13.
Heat vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Bam Adebayo Over 4.5 assists (+125 at bet365)
My analysis
Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat lug a three-game skid into Dallas for this final stop before the break. Miami is playing the second night of back-to-back games after losing at Oklahoma City on Wednesday, needing some sort of positive to cap off a crazy start to 2025.
Adebayo is doing all he can to keep the team together, with his scoring spiking from about 16 points per game to 23 points an outing since February 1. He’s seeing more touches on the offensive end with the playbook running through him most trips down the floor.
Due to that, Adebayo’s passing prowess becomes very important. He’s dished out at least four assists in five of his six games this month and his potential assists have soared from 7.2 to 10.0 in February.
The Dallas Mavericks are also dealing with the fallout of a big-time trade, sending Luka Doncic to the L.A. Lakers for Anthony Davis. However, Davis immediately suffered an injury and won’t be on the floor tonight. Nor will many of the Mavs’ frontcourt bodies, with Daniel Gafford, P.J. Washington, Dwight Powell, and Dante Exum all expected to sit.
That leaves Adebayo facing a very thin frontcourt, likely drawing smaller defenders and extra help from Dallas’ defense on the interior. That creates extra space for Adebayo’s teammates and ample opportunities to flip those growing potential assists into actual dimes in the box score.
Player projections for Adebayo range from 3.4 to 4.5 assists, with my number coming out to 4.3 helpers from the talented forward. Bam dished out five assists against the Mavericks in their first meeting back in November.
Miami has a good shot of catching Dallas in a letdown spot after an emotional home win over Golden State last night, with the Mavs winning outright as 7.5-point home dogs. The team really left it all out there to appease an angry fanbase still reeling from the Doncic deal.
Heat vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Bam Adebayo 5+ assists
Bam Adebayo 10+ rebounds
Heat -1.5
Adebayo is touching the ball more, upping his potential assists. I like him to find open teammates on the wing after the defense collapses on him.
The Dallas frontcourt is running very thin. Bam should have his way on the glass and all projections call for at least 10 boards.
With the Mavs ripe for a letdown after a big win over the Warriors, the Heat snap their skid heading into the All-Star break.
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Heat vs Mavericks odds
Heat vs Mavericks live odds
Heat vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Miami -2 | Dallas +2
- Moneyline: Miami -120 | Dallas +107
- Over/Under: Over 221.5 | Under 221.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Heat vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oddsmakers opened Dallas as a 2-point home underdog, and that trimmed to +1.5 with early play on the Mavericks.
- Books opened the Over/Under at 221.5 points, and that ticked down to 221 O/U.
- According to Covers Consensus, 69% of spread picks are taking Dallas while 52% of total picks are siding with the Under.
Heat vs Mavericks trend
The Mavericks have stayed Under the total in 32 of their last 49 games at home (+13.30 Units/25% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Heat vs Mavericks
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Thursday, 2-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN, KFAA |
Heat vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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