The Boston Celtics ended their four-game round trip in style, covering a 10-point spread against the Denver Nuggets, and now return home to play host to the red-hot Sacramento Kings.
The Kings have won five in a row but will be without De’Aaron Fox, which means they’ll be double-digit dogs against the reigning champs.
Will Sacramento be able to keep this one close without its star point guard? Tough to say, but my Kings vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks instead opt for a player prop with this game set to tip at 7:30 pm ET on Friday, Jan. 10.
Kings vs Celtics prediction
My best bet
Payton Pritchard 4+ threes (+235 at bet365)
My analysis
The Boston Celtics already look like they are just sitting around waiting for the playoffs. Boston enters this matchup with a 27-10 record, is third in net rating, and is the +220 favorite (bet365) to defend its NBA title.
Does that mean the Celtics play with their food a little bit? Sure. They haven’t been a great bet against the number this season, going 15-21-1 ATS and are 10-11 ATS when laying double digits this season.
Now, I’m not sure that will be a problem against the Sacramento Kings tonight. The Kings are cruising, winners of five in a row, going 4-1 ATS in the process, but not having De’Aaron Fox in this matchup is a big deal.
Fox is the catalyst of this Kings' offense, averaging 26.7 points, 6.2 assists, and 4.9 rebounds per game. So, replacing that production will make keeping up with the Celtics, who rank second in the NBA in offensive rating, even tougher.
And while the Kings have improved defensively this season, defending the perimeter is still a problem. Sacramento ranks 21st in opponent 3-point attempts per game and 27th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
The Celtics have a lot of shooters. Jayson Tatum, Derrick White. But I want to focus on Sixth Man of the Year favorite (-220 at bet365) Payton Pritchard.
Pritchard has always been a dead-eye shooter but he is taking it to the next level this season. The 26-year-old is averaging a career-high 14.8 points per game coming mostly off the 3-ball. Pritchard is jacking up 8.3 threes per game, draining a crazy good 42% of those attempts. But if you break down his per 36 numbers, his 10.7 threes per 36 leads the Celtics, ahead of Tatum’s 10.4.
Little to say the former Oregon Duck lets it fly and I think he does just that against the Kings tonight. This matchup is a potential blowout which can mean more minutes for Pritchard off the bench. And while he’s in a mini-slump in his last two games, the guy has still hit four or more threes in 10 of his last 17 games overall.
Pritchad’s made threes over/under is set at 2.5, but give me his alt line of 4+ at +235 instead.
Kings vs Celtics same-game parlay
Payton Pritchard 4+ threes
Kristaps Porzingis Over 18.5 points
Domantas Sabonis Over 6.5 assists
Pritchard isn’t the only Celtic I like to have a good night shooting the basketball. Kristaps Porzingis is healthy again and looks to be getting better with each passing game. He’s averaging 18.3 points per game this season and went 9-for-18 from the floor for 25 points against the Nuggets.
Stretch fours can sometimes be a problem for Kings center Domantas Sabonis, and if Porzingis can drain a couple of threes tonight he should eclipse his point total of 18.5. Something he has done in nine of his 14 games played this season.
What is the trickle-down effect of De’Aaron Fox being out for the Kings? Well for starters, the Sacramento offense will mostly run through Sabonis. The Kings big man has always been a playmaker and is averaging 6.3 assists per game this season.
Not only is that number up to 7.5 over his last six games, he dished out seven-plus dimes five times during that stretch. On top of that, the Celtics will likely try to drive the ball out of Sabonis’ hands and try to get the Kings to beat them elsewhere.
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Kings vs Celtics odds
Kings vs Celtics live odds
Kings vs Celtics opening odds
- Spread: Sacramento +10.5 | Boston -10.5
- Moneyline: Sacramento +375 | Boston -500
- Over/Under: Over 228.5 | Under 228.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kings vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Celtics opened this game as 10.5-point home favorites which suggests oddsmakers were thinking De'Aaron Fox would not play this game. That said, even when the news about Fox was confirmed the line has climbed to as high as 12.5 at some sportsbooks.
- Both the Kings and Celtics have been sub-par bets this season with Sacramento going 14-22-1 ATS and Boston at 15-21-1 ATS.
- The total hit the board at 228.5 and has been bet down slightly to 226.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- This is also due to the Fox injury news and I would lean toward the early money. If this game goes Over it's because the Celtics do most of the heavy lifting themselves. It's hard to see the Kings doing their part without Fox agianst this Celtics' defense.
Kings vs Celtics trend
The Kings have only hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 59 games dating back to last season for -17.60 Units and a -27% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Celtics.
How to watch Kings vs Celtics
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts |
| Date: | Friday, 1-10-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSCA, NBCSB |
Kings vs Celtics latest injuries
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