The NBA season is nearly a third over, and the New Orleans Pelicans are mired in last in the Western Conference, eight games back from a mere Play-In spot.
By comparison, the Sacramento Kings are enjoying a delightful season, even if also out of the playoff picture as things currently stand. And by comparison, Sacramento should cruise tonight.
My Kings vs. Pelicans predictions will doubt the home team no matter if it feels like New Orleans has already reached its nadir. It can always get worse, and that will be emphasized in my NBA picks at this 8:00 ET tip on Thursday, December 12.
Kings vs Pelicans prediction
My best bet
Kings -7 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The transitive property is a faulty piece of sports analysis. Anyone ever saying, “Team A beat Team B, and Team B beat Team C, therefore Team A is better than Team C,” is just asking to be dramatically proven wrong.
Focus on the process before and during the games, not solely the results.
To that tune, it is less notable that the Sacramento Kings beat the Spurs by 27 points last week two days before San Antonio beat the New Orleans Pelicans by five. It is more notable that San Antonio was a 6.5-point home underdog against Sacramento while a 7-point home favorite against New Orleans.
Looking at those pregame spreads implies a 13.5-point difference in power ranking between the Kings and the Pelicans.
Were there any reasons one of those spreads may have been inflated?
Both Sacramento and San Antonio were on the latter half of back-to-backs when they met, the Kings at a travel disadvantage that may have actually shortened that spread. The Pelicans were on the latter half of back-to-back when they faced the Spurs, but San Antonio was playing its third game in four nights. That is hardly a thorough advantage.
But let’s be conservative and suggest that 13.5-point difference is actually closer to 12 points, given that back-to-back burden shouldered by New Orleans on Dec. 8.
And then lower that for tonight thanks to the Pelicans enjoying the homecourt advantage. Perhaps to a 10- or 9.5-point difference.
That is to say, simply looking at last week reveals value in tonight’s 7-point spread in favor of Sacramento. No injuries in the Kings rotation have popped up since then. This number is simply shorter than it should be.
Kings vs Pelicans same-game parlay
Kings -7
Over 231.5
De'Aaron Fox Over 24.5 points
Neither of these teams is known for its defense, and that has shown up lately. The last four Pelicans games have gone Over their totals, just as four of the last five Kings games have.
Those eight combined Overs cleared their pregame totals by an average of 13.1 points.
And if betting on a fast-paced, offensive-driven game, let’s also bet on the fastest player on the court. De’Aaron Fox has fallen short of this prop in his last six games, but before that, the whirlwind had scored at least 25 points in 11 of 19 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kings vs Pelicans odds
Kings vs Pelicans live odds
Kings vs Pelicans opening odds
- Spread: Sacramento -5.5 | New Orleans +5.5
- Moneyline: Sacramento -220 | New Orleans +180
- Over/Under: Over 230.5 | Under 230.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Kings vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis
- This quiet week meant lines opened early, this one hitting the board on Tuesday with the Kings favored by -5.5.
- That spread toggled between -5.5 and -6 on Thursday morning until jumping to -7.
- The total opened on Tuesday at 230.5 and climbed to 231.5 on Wednesday, then 232 on Thursday before returning to 231.5.
Kings vs Pelicans trend
A trend to note more for its absurdity than anything else, New Orleans has not only won the last six games between these two, but it has also covered the spread in six straight games against Sacramento. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Pelicans.
How to watch Kings vs Pelicans
| Location: | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-12-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | GCSEN, NBCS-California |
Kings vs Pelicans latest injuries
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