Knicks vs Pacers Prediction, Picks, Odds for Tonight’s NBA Playoff Game

Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks travel to Gainbridge Fieldhouse to take on Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers in Game 3 of their Eastern Conference Semifinal matchup, and we've searched through the NBA odds to find you the best bet for tonight's game. 

The Pacers need a win on Friday to get back into this series against the Knicks, as they're in a 0-2 hole, so why not put the ball in the hands of your best player? Knicks vs. Pacers predictions are backing Tyrese Haliburton to go Over his assists total.

Find out why in my free NBA picks for Friday, May 10.

Knicks vs Pacers prediction

My best bet
Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 assists (+100 at BetMGM)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis
In Game 2, I bet on Tyrese Haliburton to go Over his assists total of 8.5 at -151, and I also recommended playing the Over 9.5 at +120 on Before You Bet, as the line was bouncing back and forth between 8.5 and 9.5 all morning. Both the Over 8.5 and Over 9.5 were showing a high expected value, with one being slightly better depending on the juice you could find in the market.

Haliburton finished with nine assists in Game 2, which was the worst-case scenario. I hate it when we get middled like that, recommending both numbers when the expected value is close, but I do think the Pacers PG landing on nine assists has opened the door to run this bet back in Game 3.

Haliburton had 20 potential assists in Game 2, and this came on only 35 minutes of playing time. It's not as if he had elevated minutes into the 40s, which helped him rack up a ton of potential assists. With 20 potential assists, Haliburton should've cleared the Over 9.5 in Game 2, but his teammates just weren't making shots.

Let's flip to Game 3, where the game will be played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. We all know that role players always shoot the ball better at home during the NBA Playoffs, so those 3-point attempts that weren't converting in Game 2 for Haliburton could convert at a higher rate on Friday.

Haliburton also has another angle working in his favor, which could help his potential assists convert at a higher rate. OG Anunoby has been ruled out for the Knicks with a hamstring injury, which weakens the Knicks' interior defense. The Knicks were attempting to guard Pascal Siakam with the smaller Josh Hart following the injury in Game 2, and Siakam was able to finish over Hart. With Mitchell Robinson and OG Anunoby both out, the interior defense of the Knicks is much weaker, which should help high-value potential assists in the paint convert at a higher rate.

I said it in Game 2, and I'll say it again: the Knicks don't have a point-of-attack defender who can keep up with Haliburton's burst. Haliburton is able to get to wherever he wants on the court, and he should have no issues creating for his teammates once again. So, at 9.5 (+100), I'm definitely playing the Over on this prop. We're going to need to see a much different price on Haliburton's assists prop before I pass on betting the Over against the Knicks.

Haliburton is projected to have 10.5 assists on Friday against the Knicks, which allows us to price the Over 9.5 assists at -154, but it is available at BetMGM at +100.

Knicks vs Pacers same-game parlay (SGP)

Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 assists

Aaron Nesmith Over 1.5 made threes

Obi Toppin 10+ points

+400 at BetMGM

I mentioned in our breakdown of the best bet that with the game shifting back to Gainbridge Fieldhouse, we could see the role players for the Pacers shoot the ball better from deep, helping to convert the potential assists for Haliburton.

One player that Haliburton was consistently finding in Game 2 for shots from three was Aaron Nesmith. Nesmith actually splashed a three in the corner off of a Haliburton pass to send Haliburton over the 8.5 in Game 2, but there were plenty of other attempts as well off of a Haliburton pass that didn't get converted.

I'm also pairing Obi Toppin's 10+ points prop with the Haliburton's assists prop. Toppin has been playing extremely motivated basketball against his old team, scoring 12 and 20 points in Game 1 and Game 2. I like pairing Toppin with Haliburton's assists prop just in general because he is a lob threat whom Haliburton will look for on alley-oop dunks, and he can also knock down a 3-pointer to help convert a Hali assist.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Knicks vs Pacers odds

Knicks vs Pacers live odds

Get the latest Knicks vs Pacers NBA playoff odds for Game 3.

Knicks vs Pacers opening odds

• Spread: New York +4.5 | Indiana -4.5
• Moneyline: New York +160 | Indiana -190
• Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5

Knicks vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Pacers opened as a 4.5-point favorite at FanDuel but are now trading as a 7-point favorite.
  
  
• We saw this number move when Anunoby was officially ruled out for the Knicks, who are running out of healthy players.
  
  
• The Pacers did touch as high as an 8-point favorite at FanDuel, but at Pacers -8, we saw some resistance from the market moving this number back toward the Knicks.
  
  
• The total opened at 225.5 and is now trading at 222.5 at FanDuel, and this is a consensus number in the market.

Knicks vs Pacers trend

The Knicks have hit the moneyline in 54 of their last 84 games (+20.40 Units / 9% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Pacers.

Knicks vs Pacers game info

Knicks vs Pacers latest injuries

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