This will be an emotional night for every Minnesota Timberwolves fan. No matter what national knuckleheads might say, or how delighted “Inside The NBA” might be to tell you it doesn’t watch Minnesota games, Timberwolves fans adored Karl-Anthony Towns.
So when he returns with the New York Knicks tonight, Target Center will have mixed feelings. Towns will lean into that emotional moment more than anyone, and my Knicks vs. Timberwolves predictions recognize that.
Of course, the Minnesota audience wants to win, but it also will forever hope Towns finds success, and our NBA picks expect him to do just that immediately after tip at 9:30 ET on Thursday, December 19.
Knicks vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Karl-Anthony Towns to score the first bucket (+600 at bet365)
My analysis
There was genuine thought put into betting Karl-Anthony Towns to score more than 4.5 first-quarter points, available at -130. That version of this article began by explaining away this first basket inclination, and the further into that explanation the logic got, the more value appeared in betting the +600 risk.
Barring a fast-break opportunity, it should be expected Towns will take the New York Knicks’ first shot.
Tom Thibodeau knows first-hand how much Towns loved Minnesota and vice versa. Jalen Brunson knows first-hand how it feels to be embraced by a passionate fanbase. And KAT is always one to shoot when he feels a moment at hand.
But to be sure Towns takes the first shot, and it should be a nail-extended 3-pointer, one of his favorite spots on the court.
If Towns takes a 3-pointer, that should be the shooting percentage applied to this, hitting 43.9% of them this season and 35.1% in the last month. To be as conservative with this math as possible, let’s use that 35.1%. And let’s grab the most conservative opening tip rate, New York winning it just 42.3% of the time this season. If granting the assumption Towns will take the Knicks’ first shot, winning the tip and him making it should happen 14.85% of the time.
Then ponder what could happen if the Minnesota Timberwolves win the tip, 57.7% of the time to make this exercise logical. The Timberwolves have missed 56.3% of their shots in the last month. Minnesota winning the tip and missing its first shot should happen 32.49% of the time. Apply the chance of Towns making his 3-pointer and this scenario falls to an 11.4% chance.
Throwing 14.85% and 13.4% together creates a proper price of +281.
That math got winding, but the underlying premise is simple: The moment and the emotions will induce Towns to take the first shot for the Knicks tonight. Granting that assumption creates massive value on him scoring the first bucket of the game.
Knicks vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 4.5 1Q points
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 threes
Under 215.5
Understandably, bet365 will not combine a first-bucket prop with anything else for a same-game parlay, but turning that energy toward Towns’ first-quarter points prop is only logical. If he scores first, he may need just one more bucket to clear 4.5 points in the opening frame.
Expect him to chuck from deep in Target Center. No visiting player has ever felt more at home in a gym aside from perhaps Klay Thompson in Chase Center. Then again, Thompson played only four genuine seasons in Chase Center, while Towns logged eight in Target Center (Both counts removed one year for the largely fan-free 2020-21 season).
Last season, Towns once opened a game by hitting his first eight 3-pointers. He is at ease in this building, and this prop is far too low.
But even with Towns putting in work from deep, do not expect this to be a high-scoring contest. Thibodeau has found his wanted defense, pushing New York to three straight Unders entering tonight, while Minnesota has restored its championship-caliber defense from a year ago, hitting six Unders in its last seven games, not coincidentally winning those six games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Knicks vs Timberwolves odds
Knicks vs Timberwolves live odds
Knicks vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: New York +2 | Minnesota -2
- Moneyline: New York +110 | Minnesota -130
- Over/Under: Over 212.5 | Under 212.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Knicks vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as a 2-point favorite on Monday, with this NBA Cup-driven week creating unusually long windows on NBA spreads.
- After initially dipping to -1.5 on Tuesday evening, this spread climbed to -2.5 in Wednesday’s earliest hours.
- This total opened at 212.5 on Monday night and surprisingly spent the week climbing, reaching 215.5 late on Wednesday.
- The climb in the total is difficult to explain, particularly considering these few days off. Defensive-minded teams should have the energy to double down on that effort.
Knicks vs Timberwolves trend
If intrigued by the Timberwolves at -2.5, also consider the Under, as well as vice versa. In the last five Minnesota games to hit the Under, the Wolves also covered the spread. Those are also the last five times the Timberwolves covered the spread, all within the last six games. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Knicks vs Timberwolves
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-19-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Knicks vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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