The Boston Celtics tipped off their title defense with a bang, blasting the Orlando Magic in a 17-point series-opening squash.
Boston is again a big favorite for Game 2 tonight, with adjustments made and playoff jitters boiled out of the blood. I go beyond the spread and total for this Eastern Conference quarterfinal tilt and size up the latest NBA player props.
Here are my best NBA picks for Magic vs. Celtics on Wednesday, April 23.
Best Magic vs Celtics props
Porzingis o6.5 rebounds (-135 at bet365)- Horford o2.5 assists (+135 at bet365)
Banchero o4.5 assists (+100 at bet365)
Magic vs Celtics player props for April 23
Kristaps Porzingis Over 6.5 rebounds (-135 at bet365)
The Boston Celtics’ blowout win in Game 1 allowed head coach Joe Mazzulla a lot of wiggle room.
Not only did he mix and match his lineups, tightening the bolts on his playoff rotations, but he was able to give Kristaps Porzingis a break from what looked like a bad day at the office.
“The Unicorn” went 1-for-8 from the field, but with Boston up big, Mazzulla staggered his minutes in the second half. Porzingis and Al Horford each logged only 26 minutes of action in the opener.
While his offense wasn’t clicking, his head coach heralded his defensive effort. The 7-footer was vital at protecting the rim and still pulled down six rebounds in his limited floor time. That played below his rebounding prop of 7.5 O/U and has sunk his Game 2 rebounding bar to 6.5 boards.
Porzingis finished the season average of 6.8 rebounds, and his late-season results were tempered by rest spots and limited minutes to protect the Celtics’ key players. However, he did grab seven or more boards in nine of 14 games between February and March.
I expect Porzingis to play more minutes in Game 2, and while his offense may be a work in progress against a stout Orlando Magic perimeter defense, he can still have an impact on the defensive end while cleaning the glass for the Celtics.
Player models range from 7.7 to eight rebounds, with my number coming out to 7.85 boards. That projection should have the Over 6.5 rebounds listed as pricy as -170, which takes the sting out of the current vig of -135.
Al Horford Over 2.5 assists (+135 at bet365)
With Jayson Tatum likely sitting out Game 2 with a wrist injury, minutes and touches trickle down the Celtics’ depth chart.
Al Horford could get bumped to the starting lineup and will likely see more than the 25 minutes played in Game 1, when Mazzulla was mixing time between him and Porzingis in the second half. The veteran big scored just five points on 2-of-3 shooting in the blowout win, but he did dish out three assists.
In the seven games Horford played without Tatum in the lineup this season, he averaged 3.5 assists – a notable leap from his season average of 2.1 per game — including totals of four, four, five, and six dimes in those Tatum-less outings. Horford played 28 minutes or more in five of those contests.
His playmaking picked up in the home stretch of the schedule as well, averaging 3.1 assists over his final 13 games while also boasting 5.5 potential assists an outing in that span.
I first looked at Horford’s point total with Tatum likely out tonight, but pulled back knowing how much he relies on making shots from 3-point land — something Orlando defends better than most teams. With that said, the Magic’s perimeter pressure will force Horford to move the ball.
Player forecasts are tough to tackle, with some models not factoring in Tatum’s downgraded status. Those projections that did shuffle the stats ranged from 2.3 to 2.9 assists from Horford, who shows a flair for playmaking when playing in place of Tatum.
With my prediction just shy of three dimes, taking a swing at the Over 2.5 assists at +135 is well worth the wager.
Paolo Banchero Over 4.5 assists (+100 at bet365)
Paulo Banchero fired up 27 shots in Game 1 out of necessity, with Orlando trailing big and his teammates tossing up bricks. The standout small forward scored 36 points and dished out only four assists in the loss.
I expect Boston to clamp down on Banchero tonight and try to take the ball out of his hands, opting for Orlando’s “other guys” to hurt them. That makes Banchero more of a playmaker compared to the seven potential assists his advanced stats showed in Game 1.
Outside of Banchero and Franz Wagner, the remaining Orlando shooters were a collective 30% from the field. That’s bad, even for an offense that finished 27th in field goal percentage (44.5%).
Orlando should up that output in Game 2 tonight and make good on Banchero’s set-ups.
On the season, he’s averaging 4.8 assists on 9.4 potential dimes per outing. Banchero had seven total assists in the Play-In win over Atlanta, and before Game 1 in Boston, he dished out five or more dimes in eight of the previous 13 showings.
Player forecasts all sit above the 4.5-assist total, ranging from 4.6 to 6.0 helpers. My projection predicts 5.2 assists, and given that, the Over 4.5 dimes should sit closer to a -140 ask. Bet365 is offering EVEN money on Banchero to dish out five assists tonight.
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