Paolo Banchero and the Orlando Magic will travel to Tennessee on Friday to take on Jaren Jackson Jr. and the Memphis Grizzlies, and we have identified the best bet for this matchup using the latest NBA odds.
While the Memphis Grizzlies' roster may be decimated by injuries, let's show a little love to Taylor Jenkins and his staff. The Grizzlies have won three of their last five games and continue to battle even without several key players.
Speaking of injuries, the Grizzlies won't be welcoming back any key pieces on Friday, but the Magic just got one of their best players back — Franz Wagner.
Find out why I believe we should target a Wagner points prop in my free NBA picks for Magic vs. Grizzlies on January 26.
Magic vs Grizzlies odds
Magic vs Grizzlies predictions
Franz Wagner has returned from a sprained ankle for the Magic after being sidelined for eight games. This will be his third game back with the Magic, but I believe the manner in which the Magic won and lost his first two games back has caused the sportsbooks to misjudge how they are pricing his points prop on Friday.
In Wagner's first two games back with the Magic, he scored 19 and 17 points in 28 and 24 minutes of playing time. The points and minutes are lower than expected for Wagner in his return, but that's because both games were blowouts. The Magic defeated the Miami Heat by 18 points and then lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points.
Wagner's ankle is fine; otherwise, he wouldn't have played in the back end of the back-to-back against the Cavaliers. The minutes were just down because of the score in each of those games. We can leverage this to our favor, though, because the sportsbooks are keeping his points total low because of it.
Before Wagner was injured, the Magic forward was trading with a points total of 23.5 and consistently going Over that number. This number is six points lower for Wagner, and he should be involved in a ton of offensive actions against the Grizzlies.
Paolo Banchero is the primary scorer for the Magic, but he will be matched up against the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Jaren Jackson Jr. The Magic have also recently inserted Markelle Fultz back into the starting lineup, and Fultz is much more of a facilitator than a scorer. I expect we will see a lot of field goal attempts from Wagner against the Grizzlies, and this total is just too low.
Wagner is projected to score 19.8 points on Friday against the Grizzlies, which means we can price the Over 17.5 points at -152. There's also a bunch of 18.5 in the market as well; this same projection prices the Over 18.5 at -119.
My best bet: Franz Wagner Over 17.5 points (-130 at BetRivers)
Magic vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
Franz Wagner Over 17.5 points
Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 26.5 points
Vince Williams Under 3.5 assists
I wouldn't say these three bets correlate together, with Wagner being our best bet from this article. However, what all three of these legs have in common is that they are all showing an edge as a standalone straight bet.
Jackson has become the focal point of the Grizzlies' offense with all the injuries they have suffered. Still, Jackson's advantage lies in his size, speed, and ability to stretch the floor from his position. Unfortunately for Jackson, the Magic also have a player who can do that — Banchero — and he will be able to match Jackson step for step. At 26.5, I like the Under on Jackson's points because I believe the Magic have multiple players who can disrupt his offensive game.
As for Vince Williams, this is the third straight game that I have highlighted his assists prop here at Covers, and for the third straight time, I like the Under. He ripped out our hearts on Wednesday when he dropped his fourth assist to go over the total of 3.5 with 47 seconds left in the game. The positive, that assist has kept his total at 3.5 with increased juice on the Over for one more game, and with Luke Kennard expected back in the lineup, I like the Under once again.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Magic vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis
At FanDuel, the Magic opened as a 5-point favorite, and are now trading as a 5.5-point road favorite. Make sure to shop around for this spread before placing a bet, as the market is split on Magic -5 and Magic -5.5.
The total opened at DraftKings at 214.5 and has dropped two points to 212.5. It keeps fluctuating between 213.5 and 212.5, so I wouldn't expect it to get any lower than 212.5 based on what the market is showing us. Expect this number to settle around 213, barring any unexpected injury news.
Magic vs Grizzlies betting trend to know
The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 40 games at home (+16.50 Units / 36% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Magic vs. Grizzlies.
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Magic vs Grizzlies game info
| Location: | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Friday, January 26, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southeast, Bally Sports Florida |
Magic vs Grizzlies latest injuries
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