The Minnesota Timberwolves may still be riding high from their historic comeback to win Game 7 in Denver. Their fans certainly still are. Then again, Target Center was just as high for Game 3 of the last series, and that led to a Nuggets rout.
The Dallas Mavericks have reason to believe in an upset tonight. But do they have reason to believe they can slow down the player currently shining brightest for Minnesota? No, that is not Anthony Edwards.
Rather, our free NBA picks will put faith in the longest-tenured Timberwolf as we dig into Mavs vs Timberwolves predictions for Wednesday, May 22. And don't miss Jon Metler's Mavericks vs Timberwolves props for Game 1!
Mavs vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 points (-128 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Who on the Dallas Mavericks roster is the best matchup for the Minnesota Timberwolves' most versatile offensive threat? And make no mistake, no matter how high Anthony Edwards’ star reaches this postseason, Karl-Anthony Towns remains the best offensive piece for the Timberwolves, though he's sometimes inconsistent.
The last time 6-foot-7 P.J. Washington began a game as Towns’ primary defender, Towns scored 62 points in January. He will not get this assignment.
Daniel Gafford, 6-foot-10, has been starting this postseason and then yielding many minutes to rookie Dereck Lively II. Gafford is many things — an energetic player, an attacking rebounder, an excellent lob finisher — but a defensive ace is not among them. Towns’ variety of post moves will bother Gafford, and Gafford cannot sell out against them because Towns will also make him work from the perimeter.
Lively’s 7-foot-1 length may be a better matchup, but the rookie would be in well over his head. And, again, he has not been starting.
With Minnesota starting both Towns and Rudy Gobert, playing them both notably more than 30 minutes per game last round, despite the series being rife with blowouts, Dallas needs to find a way to play two bigs more regularly. Washington as the second-biggest Maverick on the floor for many minutes will be an recipe for interior disaster.
This is where the loss of Maxi Kleber (shoulder injury, possibly returning by the end of the series) looms largest. He may not seem a significant defensive piece, but Kleber would be a better matchup than Washington, and he would give Dallas a semblance of size.
As is, Jason Kidd’s best option may be to play both Lively and Gafford — possibly to the detriment of Derrick Jones Jr., though that would then force Washington or Luka Doncic to hang with Edwards. Even with that lineup, Towns will be going against an overmatched defender.
After Towns excelled defensively the last two series, somewhat slowing Kevin Durant and Nikola Jokic, he should now have a chance to dominate offensively. He has cracked 20 points in five of his last eight games, showing increasing lower-body strength only two months removed from knee surgery.
He might crack 20 points in five of the games in this series.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves same-game parlay (SGP)
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 points
Rudy Gobert Over 12.5 points
Naz Reid Over 9.5 points
Betting all three of these player points Overs is a risk. They could arguably take away from each other. But if Dallas has no one to defend Towns, that may open up interior chances for Gobert. If Dallas has no one to defend Towns, that could open up outside looks for Naz Reid when Towns draws double teams.
Many coaches wait until after Game 1 to make any drastic adjustments. They do not want to get ahead of themselves and overcorrect before they see reality.
The obvious defensive choice for the Mavericks is to worry about Edwards. If he has not been doubled this postseason, he has exploded. But the combination of worrying about Edwards and not having multiple worthwhile bigs on the court should lead to many, many chances for Minnesota’s trio of big men.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves odds
Mavericks vs Timberwolves live odds
Get the latest Mavericks vs Timberwolves NBA playoff odds for Game 1.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +4 | Minnesota -4
- Moneyline: Dallas +150 | Minnesota -167
- Over/Under: Over 206 | Under 206
Mavericks vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Timberwolves opened as 4-point favorites after their dramatic Game 7 victory, a number that held steady until rising to -4.5 on early Wednesday morning.
- The total hit the market at 206.5 and peaked at 208 in Wednesday’s earliest hours before returning to 206.5. The low number is an endorsement of Minnesota’s defense, while the brief move may have been a nod toward some public money.
- The betting splits at BetMGM, as of Wednesday morning, do not yield much insight. A slight majority of bettors and money back the Timberwolves at -4.5 and 60% of bettors and money siding with the Over 206.5.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves trend
Minnesota’s four wins last round all included an Under cashing. Its three losses all featured an Over cashing. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-22-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Mavericks vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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