Anthony Edwards tried to warn the Dallas Mavericks not to let the Minnesota Timberwolves win Game 4. “They better get rid of us,” he could be heard saying in a pregame segment.
The Mavericks did not get rid of the Timberwolves, and now I'm making Mavs vs Timberwolves predictions for tonight's Game 5.
This series suddenly looks likely to go at least six games, and recent history says Minny will survive in a specific game script. My NBA picks will dig into that, with tip set for 8:30 p.m. ET.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Timberwolves moneyline with Under 209.5 (+184 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Since routing the Suns in the first round, one thing has been true of all five Minnesota Timberwolves’ wins: The Under has cashed.
Frankly, another thing has been true of each of those Minnesota wins: The Wolves were desperate.
Going into the series against Denver, with the first two games on the road, Minnesota was a significant underdog. Few were giving the Timberwolves a genuine chance in that series. They responded by winning the first two games.
Then they may have gotten comfortable; they had stolen homecourt advantage in emphatic fashion and were the talk of the league. The Nuggets took two in Minnesota, before needing a transcendent performance from Nikola Jokic for Denver to win Game 5, something that could certainly be applicable in this series if Luka Doncic sees fit.
With their backs against the wall once again, the Timberwolves won Game 6 and went on the road to win Game 7.
And that made them the talk of the league once more. Enter Dallas taking the 3-0 lead in this series, partly thanks to a transcendentally bad performance from Karl-Anthony Towns in Game 3.
Until another loss, it is safe to assume Minnesota will be desperate for the rest of the postseason.
“It’s a fun team to coach because they believe they can win no matter what,” Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch said after the Game 4 upset.
This is an intangible handicap, but it is embracing value created by 11 games of precedent now.
Adding the Under to a Minnesota moneyline only furthers that precedent. The Wolves’ undoing in these Western Conference Finals has been, shockingly, their defense.
Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, Minnesota posted a 107.6 defensive rating. In the first three games of this series, that spiked to 118.5. In Game 4, it returned to 107.5.
If the Timberwolves succeed these days, it starts with their defense. That was aided by the Mavericks losing Dereck Lively II — officially questionable to return — though it was also harmed by Minnesota’s offense giving Dallas 15 turnovers which led to 14 fast break points and 30 total points off turnovers. The Wolves’ Game 3 defensive success should be replicable, and if it is done again, then it should go hand-in-hand with a Minnesota win.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves same-game parlay (SGP)
Timberwolves moneyline
Under 209
Anthony Edwards Under 2.5 made 3s
Anthony Edwards Over 14.5 rebounds + assists
Anthony Edwards’ fatigue from the seven-game series against Denver showed itself in Games 1 and 2 of this series, taking 19 of his 33 shots from beyond the arc. Dallas also designed its defense to stem him from getting to the rim.
The combination of Lively’s absence and Edwards’s renewed aggression led to 23 drives, a playoff career-high, in both Games 3 and 4 that then led to scoring chances for him or a teammate. For context, he had nine such drives in Game 1.
Edwards is a strong shooter, but the Timberwolves know their best offense at the moment begins with him barrelling down the lane.
That kind of aggression shows up elsewhere in Edwards’s stat line, as well. He has averaged 8.8 rebounds and 8.3 assists in this series, falling short of this combination prop just once out of four games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves odds
Mavericks vs Timberwolves live odds
Get the latest Mavericks vs Timberwolves NBA playoff odds for Game-X.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +4 | Minnesota -4
- Moneyline: Dallas +158 | Minnesota -176
- Over/Under: Over 209.5 | Under 209.5
Mavericks vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- After Tuesday’s upset, the Timberwolves opened as 4-point favorites for Game 5, a number that rose to -4.5 by Wednesday’s sunrise, some sportsbooks reaching -5 by that afternoon.
- The total opened at 209.5 and held there all Wednesday, a notable jump from the first three games of this series all had totals at 207 or 207.5.
- Both this spread and this total have effectively moved a bucket toward Dallas since the first two games of the series in Minnesota.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves trend
Dallas is 4-4 outright in eight postseason games that have cashed Unders and 7-1 in eight postseason games that have cashed Overs. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves game info
| Location: | Target Center, St. Paul, MN |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-30-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Mavericks vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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