Nuggets vs Kings Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Defending Champs Are Unfazed by Back-to-Backs

In a league where load management has been crucial, Denver has no problem playing on short rest. Read more as we're backing Nikola Jokic and the defending NBA champs as road dogs in our Nuggets vs. Kings betting picks.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
Dec 2, 2023 • 11:25 ET • 4 min read
Nikola Jokic Denver Nuggets NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Doubt the Denver Nuggets at your own risk, as doing so has been a losing strategy. 

Tonight, on the second night of a back-to-back, they stand as five-point underdogs in the latest NBA odds. However, Denver has enjoyed considerable success when playing as underdogs.

The Sacramento Kings have had an up-and-down week, but two days of additional rest may not be enough to put away the Nuggets easily.

That’s our thinking in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview the Nuggets vs the Kings on December 2, with tip set for 10:00 ET.

Nuggets vs Kings odds

Nuggets vs Kings predictions

Denver Nuggets head coach Mike Malone and two-time MVP Nikola Jokic have built a culture in that locker room, one that doesn’t seem to care who is available, who is tired, or why Denver might be an underdog. 

Last season, the Nuggets went 14-7 against the spread as underdogs, including 10-11 straight up. That has continued this season, with Denver going 2-0 ATS and SU as an underdog, including last night’s 119-111 win at Phoenix as a 1.5-point underdog.

This apparent culture goes beyond just rallying when doubted. The Nuggets went 8-4 ATS last year on the second night of back-to-backs. If that sounds absurd, it’s because it is.

Occam’s Razor explains those year-plus trends from Denver without much stress: Sportsbooks adjust league-wide for the second night of a back-to-back, but the Nuggets ethos bucks that trend.

Until sportsbooks properly adjust for what Malone and Jokic have built, there is a path to value tonight when Denver faces the Sacramento Kings.

My best bet: Nuggets +5 (-108 at FanDuel)

Nuggets vs Kings same-game parlay

Nuggets +5

Nikola Jokic Over 5.5 assists

De'Aaron Fox Over 28.5 points

As of Saturday afternoon, there is no word yet on Jamal Murray’s availability tonight after missing last night’s win in Phoenix with an ankle sprain. Speculating on his odds of playing would be misguided.

That said, Jokic had 16 assists last night and has averaged 11 assists per game in his last 10 games. The possibility of Murray being out or limited should add value to what is effectively a 50/50 prop otherwise.

Meanwhile, De’Aaron Fox has been on a hot streak. He has scored at least 29 points in six of his last 10 games and averaged 31.1 across that stretch. In the two games in which he fell short of this prop, he scored 28 points.

The speedy point guard took a major leap last year and just might be in the midst of another one now.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Nuggets vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis

The earliest numbers hit the market with Sacramento favored by just 2.5 points overnight.

Perhaps the sportsbooks did acknowledge Denver's earned credit in the last year-plus on these second nights of back-to-backs, while the market persists in doubting the Nuggets, pushing the spread to -4.5 by sunrise and -5 around lunchtime.

The earliest totals were set at 228.5, jumping to 230.5 by sunrise and then slipping up to 233 in mid-morning. Maybe that is an expectation of Murray playing, but that would run counter to the spread’s jump.

More likely, it is faith in Fox’s legs.

Nuggets vs Kings betting trend to know

The Kings are 3-4 ATS at home this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Kings.

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Nuggets vs Kings game info

Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Date: Saturday, December 2, 2023
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: Altitude, NBCS-CA

Nuggets vs Kings latest injuries

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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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