The Los Angeles Lakers are on the cusp of elimination heading into tonight's Game 4 against the Denver Nuggets.
With the Lakers season on the line, the NBA odds favor the Nuggets by 3.5 points, and my Nuggets vs. Lakers predictions think Nikola Jokic is poised to complete the sweep on L.A.’s home court.
Find out where my best bets lie in our NBA picks for Saturday, April 27.
Nuggets vs Lakers predictions
My best bet
Nikola Jokic Over 49.5 points + rebounds + assists (-108 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
It’s been a dominant opening round of the NBA playoffs for Nikola Jokic, as he reminds the country why he’s the favorite to win NBA MVP. Behind Jokic, Denver has beaten L.A. 11 straight times, and the two-time MVP is set to make it 12 on Saturday.
Joker just wants to watch the Lakers’ season burn, and he’s been punishing a defense that never really had any shot of stopping him. The Lakers finished the regular season allowing the eighth-most points per game in the NBA (117.4), the 12th-most rebounds (44), and the fifth-most assists (28.2).
It’s been clear through the first three games of the series that Jokic’s skill set and the Nuggets’ overall length is just too much for the Lakers. The six-time All-Star can put an exclamation point on the series with another superb performance in Game 4.
After averaging a combined 47.8 points, rebounds, and assists in the regular season, Jokic hasn’t missed a beat against the Lakers. He’s putting up 27.7 points, 15.6 rebounds, and 8.6 assists in the series (51.9 total).
With an already large usage rate during the regular season (28.8%), Jokic is basically not coming off the court in this series. He’s averaging over 39 minutes per game, and the Lakers don’t seem to have any answers for him.
At 6-foot-11, 284 pounds, not even Anthony Davis is making much of a difference around the rim with Jokic’s power and touch being too much. And, of course, his ability to set others up when defenses crash on him makes him nearly impossible to stop.
It doesn’t help the Lakers that they allowed the 10th-most paint points per game in the NBA in the regular season (51.6) and Jokic is among the leaders in the league in paint touches (8.2 per game).
Among players who saw at least eight paint touches per game in the regular season, Jokic was 12th in paint points (8.1) and second in paint assists (0.6). At this point, the Lakers players may want to make offseason plans because nobody can stop the Joker.
Nuggets vs Lakers same-game parlay (SGP)
Nikola Jokic Over 49.5 points, rebounds, and assists
Jamal Murray Over 19.5 points
Aaron Gordon Over 7.5 rebounds
It hasn’t just been Jokic demoralizing Lakers faithful, Jamal Murray hit one of the most memorable game-winning buzzer beaters to take Game 2 of the series 101-99. We’re going with the alt-line on his point total to give us more breathing room, with him scoring at least 20 in all three games thus far.
The unsung hero of the series for Denver has been Aaron Gordon. He’s coming off a 29-point, 15-rebound performance, and his effort has popped off the screen, especially with the way he’s pulling in boards. He’s averaging 11 rebounds per game in the series.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Nuggets vs Lakers odds
Nuggets vs Lakers live odds
Get the latest Nuggets vs Lakers NBA playoff odds for Game 4.
Nuggets vs Lakers opening odds
- Spread: Denver -2.5 (-110) | Los Angeles +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Denver -130 | Los Angeles +110
- Over/Under: Over 216 (-110) | Under 216 (-110)
Nuggets vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis
- After taking Game 3 of the series 112-105, the Nuggets opened as a 2.5-point favorite on the road against the Lakers. The line has since shifted further in Denver’s direction to -3.5.
- The Nuggets are just 40-43-2 ATS this season, but have covered in two of the three games in this series. L.A. is 41-46 ATS.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 215.5 and has since moved up to between 218 and 218.5 at most books.
- Denver is the best Under team in the NBA this season, hitting it in 50 of 85 games. The Lakers, on the other hand, are a better Over team at 47-39-1.
Nuggets vs Lakers trend
The Nuggets have hit the moneyline in 70 of their last 96 games (+22.80 Units / 7% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Lakers.
Nuggets vs Lakers game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 4-27-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Nuggets vs Lakers latest injuries
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