MVP candidates go toe-to-toe at Paycom Center tonight when Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets visit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder.
My Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions expect both players to put on a show in this early-afternoon showdown. Read my NBA picks to see why you should bet on both guys to stuff the stat sheet.
Nuggets vs Thunder prediction
My best bet
Nikola Jokic to record a triple-double (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
Who else but Joker, right? The reigning MVP made history on Friday night when he provided the NBA’s first 30-20-20 game in a thrilling 149-141 overtime victory against the Suns. Friday’s performance marked Nikola Jokic's 29th triple-double of the season, and he’s reached that mark in just 57 appearances.
Historical context and legacy implications are important in setting the stage for this prop pick. With 18 games to go, Jokic needs only two more triple-doubles to tie Wilt Chamberlain for most in a single season by a center.
He’s currently on pace to become just the third player in league history to average a triple-double for an entire season, and he would be the first non-guard to accomplish that feat. If his current averages remain steady, Jokic could also become the only player to finish Top-3 in points, rebounds, and assists in a single season.
Since 2019-20, Jokic has logged 18 games against the Oklahoma City Thunder and posted a triple-double in seven of them. That’s good for 38.9% of his appearances against OKC and his second-most triple-doubles against one opponent behind only the Pelicans. In that span, Jokic has averaged 24.1 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 9.2 dimes.
This season, Jokic has posted a triple-double in both matchups with the Thunder, and he’ll get another favorable draw against OKC’s generous interior defense. Over the last seven games, the Thunder have allowed opposing centers to average 24.8 points, 16.7 rebounds, and 3.9 assists.
Jokic has posted 13 triple-doubles on the road compared to 16 at home this season, but he’s reached the statistical milestone in two of his last three outside of Ball Arena. I expect him to play at his best against a familiar opponent with all eyes on this clash of MVP candidates.
Nuggets vs Thunder same-game parlay
Nikola Jokic to record a triple-double
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 44.5 points + rebounds + assists
Jalen Williams 15+ points
As good as SGA has been this season, he’s been even better across his last seven. He’s averaged 49.1 PRA over that span and hit the Over on this combo prop five times. This season, he’s posted 38 and 43 PRA in two games at Denver. Across his last four home games with the Nuggets, he’s averaged 44.5 PRA and hit the Over twice. I expect him to be highly motivated for today’s matchup.
J-Dub is averaging a career-best 21.4 points per game this season. I considered taking his scoring line at 20 tonight, but 15 is the safer bet and shores up the third leg of this SGP. Williams has scored 15+ in 13 straight, reaching that mark in 49 of 59 appearances on the seaason. The Nuggets are Bottom-10 in defensive rating and points per game allowed since the All-Star break, making this a favorable matchup.
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Nuggets vs Thunder odds
Nuggets vs Thunder live odds
Nuggets vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Denver +8 | Oklahoma City -8
- Moneyline: Denver +250 | Oklahoma City -310
- Over/Under: Over 242.5 | Under 242.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Nuggets vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- Denver has covered in five of eight since the All-Star break.
- Oklahoma City is 8-1 straight up and 5-4 ATS since the break.
- The Thunder have taken four of the last five meetings with the Nuggets.
Nuggets vs Thunder trend
The Thunder have cashed the Over in 25 of their last 36 games for +14 units and a 35% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Thunder.
How to watch Nuggets vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Sunday, 3-9-2025 |
| Tip-off | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC, ESPN+ |
Nuggets vs Thunder latest injuries
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