Nikola Jokic is putting together one of the best offensive seasons the NBA has ever seen, and that has kept the Denver Nuggets near the top of the Western Conference despite their roster’s shortcomings.
Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans are arguably the worst team in the West. That should set up for an easy Denver win, and when that is the case, targeting Jokic’s assist prop makes the most sense.
My Pelicans vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks will indeed trust the best player in the world. Tip comes at 9 ET on Monday, February 3.
Pelicans vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet
Nikola Jokic Over 10.5 assists (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
Nikola Jokic already owns the most efficient offensive season in history with his Player Efficiency Rating in 2021-22, his second MVP season, per basketball-reference.com. Right now, Jokic is on pace to break that record to give himself not only the two most efficient offensive seasons in history but also five of the Top 20.
While the Thunder have demanded much of the attention out West, we have not given proper appreciation to what Jokic is doing. To some extent, that's also because he's done something decently similar in each of the last four seasons.
Most recently, Jokic has been moving the ball as well as ever. He has notched double-digit assists in nine of his last 10 games, the sole exception coming against the Knicks on Wednesday night. Jokic has cleared this assist prop in five of his last six games, that exception again obviously being against the Knicks.
Looking at those six games, Jokic was held to fewer than 13 assists against only the Timberwolves (11) and the Knicks (6). Those are also clearly the two best defenses during this stretch, both on reputation and in defensive rating across the last two months. Minnesota ranks No. 4 in defensive rating since Dec. 3, while New York is at No. 10.
The best defense of the other four, Charlotte, with the No. 14 defensive rating, gave up 17 assists on Saturday night.
The New Orleans Pelicans are far more like the lesser teams than the Timberwolves and the Knicks. New Orleans has ranked No. 28 in defensive rating this season, No. 28 in the last two months, and No. 24 in the last month.
Tonight should be another night where Jokic does not need to do all the work himself. He can instead move the ball around against a lesser defense.
Pelicans vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Nikola Jokic Over 10.5 assists
Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 points
Over 242
Look for Jokic to not worry too much about his scoring. He's fallen short of this scoring prop in seven of his last 11 games, with two of the exceptions coming this weekend, each by just half a point.
Remember, what is amazing about Jokic’s season is his efficiency as he racks up stats. In his last 11 games, he has averaged only 14.3 shots per game. In three of the games where he scored 28+ points, free throws deserved notable credit.
Two of those — Sacramento and Philadelphia — rank in the bottom half of the league in opponent free throws per game. The third, Charlotte, is tied with New Orleans at 20.7 attempts per game. That game against the Hornets was stunningly close. As long as tonight does not come down to the final minutes, Jokic should not need to attempt nine free throws again.
And no one can fault Jokic if he does not seek out as much contact tonight. This is Denver’s third game in four nights, the 11th time they've faced such a scheduling hurdle this season. In the previous 10, eight Overs cashed.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Pelicans vs Nuggets odds
Pelicans vs Nuggets live odds
Pelicans vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +13.5 | Denver -13.5
- Moneyline: New Orleans +600 | Denver -900
- Over/Under: Over 235.5 | Under 235.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Pelicans vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened Sunday evening with the Nuggets favored by 13.5, and it then ticked down steadily all night, reaching the morning at -11.5.
- Monday morning pushed this spread down further to -10.5, at least somewhat attributable to the scheduling disadvantage for Denver.
- This total opened at 235.5 and climbed all night, reaching 241 by morning and 242 on Monday afternoon.
Pelicans vs Nuggets trend
The Nuggets have gone 0-5 ATS in their last five games. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Pelicans vs Nuggets
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Monday, 2-3-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ALT, Gulf Coast Sports |
Pelicans vs Nuggets latest injuries
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