The New Orleans Pelicans face off against the Phoenix Suns in NBA action on Thursday night.
New Orleans is in tank for Cooper Flagg mode and my Pelicans vs. Suns predictions expect that to result in another poor defensive effort tonight.
Here are my best free NBA picks for this Western Conference showdown on February 27.
Pelicans vs Suns prediction
My best bet
Suns team total Over 121.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
The Phoenix Suns return to Arizona for their first home game since February 11. It's rare to see the Suns with their Big Three intact, but Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are healthy with Bradley Beal questionable, which should lead to offensive fireworks tonight.
Phoenix is coming off a 151-148 overtime loss to Memphis, scoring 137 points in regulation against a strong defense. Durant, Booker, and Beal all dropped more than 20 points in that game with Bol Bol and sixth-man Grayson Allen also hitting the 20-point plateau.
The Suns had been playing at a Bottom-10 pace for most of the season but have played at the fourth-fastest pace in the league over their last six games. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans have played at the third-fastest pace in the league over the last 15 contests and that — combined with poor defensive play — is a recipe for disaster tonight.
The Pelicans are 28th in the NBA in defensive rating and 26th in scoring defense with 118.6 points per game allowed. They are even worse on the road where they surrender 120.2 ppg on a league-worst 56.5 eFG%.
They also recently lost their two best defenders, Dejounte Murray and Herbert Jones, to season-ending injuries and have given the night off to their best remaining perimeter defender in Bruce Brown.
The Pels are coming off three contests in which they didn't allow many points. That said, those games were against the Spurs, who are missing Victor Wembanyama, and the post-Luka Doncic Mavericks. They won't have anywhere near the same success against Durant and Co.
Pelicans vs Suns same-game parlay
Suns team total Over 121.5
Kevin Durant Over 26.5 points
Trey Murphy Over 4.5 assists
The Pels have especially struggled to defend iso-plays and rank 28th in threes allowed per game (14.5). That makes this a juicy matchup for Durant who is fifth in the league in points per possession on isolation plays and drains 2.4 threes per game at a 40% clip.
While I expect the Suns to fill up the hoop, they're also just 27th in defensive rating and should give up plenty of points themselves.
That should lead to another big game for Pels guard Trey Murphy who has seen his ball-handling duties expand after the injury to Murray. Murphy is coming off a four-assist performance against the Spurs but had eclipsed 4.5 dimes in his previous seven games.
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Pelicans vs Suns odds
Pelicans vs Suns live odds
Pelicans vs Suns opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +7.5 | Phoenix -7.5
- Moneyline: New Orleans +250 | Phoenix -310
- Over/Under: Over 236 | Under 236
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pelicans vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on Phoenix, shifting the spread from -7.5 to -8 while the O/U has stayed at 236..
- The Suns are 2-9 straight up and 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games.
- The Pels are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games but had gone 0-10 SU and 2-7-1 ATS before that.
- At 236 this is the Pels' second-lowest total this month despite both teams sitting in the Bottom 5 in defensive rating and playing at a fast pace.
Pelicans vs Suns trend
The Pelicans have hit the game total Over in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.60 Units / 19% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Suns.
How to watch Pelicans vs Suns
| Location | Footprint, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Thursday, 2-27-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | GCSEN, Arizona's Family 3TV/Arizona's Family Sports |
Pelicans vs Suns latest injuries
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