NBA Picks

The Heat limp into this matchup, with no Andrew Wiggins, Kel'el Ware, Nikola Jovic, or Jaime Jaquez. Adding to those injury concerns is a quad ailment for breakout guard Davion Mitchell, who is listed as questionable. The thinning forward corps leaves them in a bad spot for mismatches against Cleveland when switching off those screens. Miami has had to wheel out veteran big Kevin Love to boost their size, with the current rotation running no bigger than 6-foot-9 Bam Adebayo. The Cavaliers have a net rating of +16.3 during this run and have lived up the oddsmakers’ lofty expectation, covering the spread in seven of those contests (7-3-1 ATS). Cleveland is also up the challenge when facing double-digit chalk, boasting a 14-8 ATS record when laying -10 or more this season.

The Washington Wizards are getting healthier, and I like them to cover the spread against the injury-plagued Utah Jazz. The trade deadline was unkind to NBA vets Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart, but they helped Washington cover the number in six of 10. The Wizards will also benefit from Jordan Poole's return. Utah is banged up, has lost seven of 10, and doesn't win on the road (7-22 SU). Washington is 4-1-0 ATS in its previous five at home, and I'm betting they cover against Utah. 

Portland has taken full advantage of a very friendly schedule to win five of its last six games, with the one loss coming in overtime against the Cavaliers. I’m buying into the belief that’s forming for Chauncey Billups’ men. Meanwhile, the Celtics have been sleepwalking through portions of this season and their injury list makes me pause. Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday are doubtful, while Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are questionable. That’s a lot of banged-up talent for a team that’s 1-3 ATS in its past four outings.

The Dallas Mavericks lost Kyrie Irving for the season, and they are in trouble offensively when they face a good Milwaukee Bucks defense. That stop unit has surrendered fewer than 113 points in five of six. Dallas has other injury concerns and has scored fewer than 102 points in four of five. They are also 3-7-0 to the Under in its previous 10. I'll bet the Under on a Bucks squad on zero nights rest and 5-6-0 to the Under in those situations.

The situation in Dallas has gone from bad to worse following the Luka Doncic trade, and the numbers back up that assertion. The Mavs rank 10th in offensive rating on the season at 114.4 but since the break, the team has sunk to 28th at 105. Dallas’ net rating of 0.9 ranks 16th on the season, but the team is -9 across its last six, good for 26th. Add in all the injuries (Kyrie, AD, P.J. Washington, etc.) and Giannis Antetokounmpo & Co. won't have any trouble thumping the Mavs at Fiserv Forum.

The Pistons have been one of the best bets in the NBA as of late with a 12-3 record ATS since January 31, and that includes covering against the Clippers as a 3-point favorite with a 106-97 win a week ago. The Clippers were also down Norman Powell in that game and struggled to score against a Pistons defense that sits ninth in defensive rating (112.3) while allowing the third-fewest 2-pointers per game (26.7) and the sixth-fewest field goal attempts (87.6). A low volume of shots won’t help an L.A. team that’s down two of its three top scorers, especially when the Clippers are already just 22nd in PPG (110.7) and 21st in offensive rating (112.4). Powell is also this team’s biggest 3-point shooting threat, and Ty Lue’s team is only 27th in made 3-pointers per game (12.1).