NBA Picks

Malik Beasley has largely underwhelmed during this series, making only nine of his mostly wide-open 30 long-range attempts. The looks have been there, but since his Game 1, six of 12 long-range outburst, Beasley has gone an uncharacteristic three for 18 from beyond the arc. Draining the triple is how Beasley remains in the rotation, and we should expect the Detroit Pistons to try to get their sixth man as many early opportunities as possible. Beasley has knocked down 4+ triples in three of his previous five, and I expect a bounce-back night from the veteran chucker.

Detroit Piston Malik Beasley got whatever he wanted from inside and outside the arc in Game 3, which resulted in his second 20+ scoring night of this series. However, the Pistons haven’t been able to contain OG Anunoby from getting to his spots, and the New York Knicks forward has enjoyed plenty of wide-open looks from downtown against the Pistons' defense. Detroit's defense has been overly focused on stopping Jalen Brunson and Towns, and as a result, Anunoby has scored 18+ points in six of his previous nine, and I like him to clear his scoring prop on Sunday.

I expect the New York Knicks to give the big man from Kentucky the green light to fire away against a Detroit Pistons perimeter defense that surrendered 36% from long range during the regular season and 34% during this series. Karl-Anthony Towns made 42% of his five attempts from beyond the arc during the Knicks' first 82 games, but is making only 38% during the postseason. Friday’s massive night should give Towns the confidence to land at least two from long range on Sunday against Detroit.

The Detroit Pistons opened up as the underdog, but the line has moved in favor of the home team, and I’m happy to take the Pistons as outright winners. The Pistons went 26-12 straight up as the favorites this season, including 14-7 as the home favorites. The New York Knicks won just four of 13 games as the road dog and four of 17 as the underdog at any venue.I expect the Pistons to come out with a wild sense of urgency here. They know that they could be leading this series, and they know that a loss tonight means they’ll have to win three straight to extend their season. With two of the next three games after this one scheduled at Madison Square Garden, Game 4 is a must-win, and it will guarantee at least one more home game. I’m backing Detroit to take care of business and even up the series.

At the start of this series, Brunson’s scoring totals were at 27.5 points but after those explosive showings, this market swelled to 30.5 O/U for Game 4. Player models peak at 27.7 points, but the majority of those projections are much shorter and well below the 30.5-point number. My number comes out just shy of 26 points, which should have the Under 30.5 points priced at -270 rather than -120. I don't see the Knicks getting the foul calls like they did in Game 3 (with the refs trying to make up for one-side foul shots in Game 2) and the Pistons will push Brunson to the perimeter, where he's shooting just 29% for the series. It’s a scary bet to take the Under on, but Brunson can still have an outstanding effort and come in short of 31 points.

With Luka sick and the rest of the Lakers struggling to shot, James took it on himself to power the offense in Game 3. He's scored 38 points but dished out only four assists. That's sunk his assist prop to 5.5 O/U for Game 4. James finished with seven assists in Game 2 and we’ve routinely seen him be more of a facilitator in the postseason throughout the back half of his career. He’s averaged more than eight assists during the playoffs in his time as a Laker, but his recent passing prowess has his assist prop down to 5.5 O/U for Game 4. Player projections are very bullish on James’ assists today, with models ranging from 6.8 to 8.1 assists. My forecast calls for 7.4 assists and with Doncic feeling better and Austin Reaves heating up, LeBron’s set-ups won’t go wasted.

L.A. is now allowing 38.4% shooting from outside to rank among the worst teams in the playoffs, and it just lost a game where it held Minnesota to 36.1%. The Lakers finished the season with the fifth-worst turnover rate in April. Facing big issues inside and an already sizable disadvantage in the rebounding department, it’s going to be very difficult to win in Minnesota.

Lillard is working through the rust and a tough Pacers defense, but he’s still able to impact the game with his playmaking, recording seven and five assists in his first two games back while averaging 10 potential assists in those contests. On the season, Lillard was dishing out just over seven dimes on 13 potential assists per game. His player forecast for today all sits north of the 6.5-assist total in the player prop markets, with some models as high as 7.5 dimes. My number sits at 7.3 assists and there’s potential for more considering the pace of this series and Milwaukee’s shooting success inside Fiserv Forum (third best at home in NBA).