NBA Picks

Since the Utah Jazz won back-to-back games in Florida over the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic, they’ve gone into the tank, with just one win over the last dozen. The Jazz have won four of the last six matchups, but the teams are both 3-3 against the spread. Orlando and Utah’s combined struggles does make it feel more even than a 5.5-point spread, so let’s lean on these teams’ inability to get buckets. The Jazz have cashed the Under in three of its last four, while the Magic have hit the Under in four of its last six, with just one total set above 213.5 points.

The injury-riddled Atlanta Hawks hope to end a seven-game losing skid when they meet the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Atlanta is 2-5-0 ATS in those seven games and 11-14-0 ATS as the away team. Making matters worse? Leading scorer Trae Young hit the injury report with a hammy issue, and that’s not good against a Pacers side that’s won eight of its last 10 and covered the spread in eight of those 10 clashes. I’m betting Indiana keeps the good vibes rolling.

Unlike the Hawks, Indiana comes into tonight’s game largely healthy. Sure, Bennedict Mathurin (16.4 ppg) is day-to-day with an illness, but Pascal Siakam (20.5 ppg) and Tyrese Haliburton (18.3 ppg) are more than capable of pacing an offense that gets contributions up and down the lineup. That depth has allowed the Pacers to be a top-10 offense in the NBA – their 114.6 offensive rating ranks ninth in the league, while they are sixth in true shooting (59.3%) – helping them cover for some shaky defensive performances. With Atlanta lacking enough weapons to get the most out of Young, Indiana shouldn’t be terribly challenged on defense tonight, while the Pacers will have the ability to score consistently at home against an unremarkable Hawks defense. I’m taking Indiana to win big and cover the spread tonight.

Wednesday was Exhibit A as Siakam blitzed the Detroit Pistons for 37 points on 15-for-21 shooting, and that makes the Over on tonight’s 21.5 line a must-have prop. He averaged 22.4 PPG in January, up from 18.3 PPG in December, and he’s poured in 23 points or more in six of his past nine games. Siakam made an ultra-efficient 56% of his shots last month, even with his inconsistent 3-point stroke, and he’s got a golden opportunity for another big outing here against a reeling Atlanta Hawks team. The Atlanta Hawks are allowing 118.5 PPG, the fourth-worst in the league, and they gave up 137 points to the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out. With Siakam on the charge, Atlanta may not fare much better today. There’s also a nice floor for this prop, with Siakam scoring at least 18 points in each of his last 10 contests.

The Charlotte Hornets are 16-28-0 to the Under this season. The Hornets are also 4-6-0 to the Under in their previous 10. Making matters worse for Charlotte is LaMelo Ball is out with an ankle injury. The Hornets have a nightmare matchup against a Denver Nuggets franchise that will be on zero nights' rest after battling the 76ers. I suspect a Denver player or two could sit this one out, and I’m betting 221.5 points is too many.

He’s hit the Over in four of his last six matchups with the Charlotte Hornets dating back to the 2021-22 campaign. Charlotte’s defense offers a phenomenal matchup for Jokic. On the season, the team has allowed opposing centers to average 23.2 points, 16.1 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.4 triples. The points are the ninth-highest, rebounds are the fourth-highest, and three-pointers are the sixth-highest. Jokic is knocking down a career-best 2.0 three-pointers at a 47.2% clip - also a personal best. If we look back at Charlotte’s last seven games, they’ve hemorrhaged points and rebounds to opposing centers, surrendering 36.1 points, 19.9 boards, and 3.5 assists. Jokic has hit the Over in 12 of his last 20, and I see no reason to bet against him doing so tonight in this tremendous matchup.

The Houston Rockets had their four-game win streak snapped by the Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday, but it was another strong showing for Jalen Green. The fourth-year guard put up his second straight 25-point performance and added another six rebounds and five assists to boot. Green saw his points per game jump from 19.3 in December to 25.7 in January while also picking up 4.2 boards per contest, so I like his odds of cashing the Over on 25.5 PR tonight

I’m picking Ant to deliver from downtown tonight against the Washington Wizards after knocking down six triples in Utah on Thursday on the way to 36 points. That barrage helped Edwards bounce back from a 10-for-34 stretch from deep across his four prior outings, and there’s no reason to think that Washington will have the answers defensively here. The Wizards have lost 16 in a row and are giving up an NBA-worst 122.2 PPG. Despite the cold spell, Edwards still finished January with a 44% mark from beyond the arc on almost 10 attempts a night, and the volume will be there, with Donte DiVincenzo’s absence putting an even bigger emphasis on Ant’s shotmaking. Edwards certainly didn’t go easy on Washington in the teams’ first meeting of the season, dropping 41 points with five 3-pointers. Don’t count on any mercy tonight either.

Thompson is averaging 21 points and 10.2 rebounds across his last four games, and I love the Over on this 25.5 combo prop line, especially with a minutes load of at least 38 minutes in three of those past four outings. Thompson shot the ball with confidence (7-for-15) in Thursday’s narrow loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, and his rebounding numbers could climb tonight if Alperen Sengun’s calf issue keeps him out. Of course, it helps that Thompson is facing a slumping Nets team that’s lost 12 of their past 13 contests, and he’s poised to be busy at both ends of the floor as the Rockets try to strengthen their grip on the No.2 seed in the West.

Bam Adebayo’s scoring is down a bit from last season, but he’s still getting it done across the board with averages of 15.9 points, 9.9 rebounds and 4.5 assists for the Miami Heat. That’s good for 30.3 PRAs per game, but I expect him to be even better than that tonight on the road. On the season, Adebayo has hit the Over on this line in 17 games overall, including each of his last three. He failed to hit the Over in his first matchup with the Spurs this season, but that contest was a blowout at home. I expect tonight’s matchup to be close, and the oddsmakers do too with the spread set at just one point. Adebayo should be in line for big minutes and production in a hard-fought battle in San Antonio.

The Los Angeles Lakers just don't have the defensive talent to hang with this New York Knicks offense. The Lakers are 20th in defensive rating this season (114.9) and are allowing the 10th-highest field goal percentage to opponents (47%) and the ninth-most twos per game (28.8). Without Anthony Davis out there as a rim protector, JJ Redick’s lineup is bound to struggle even more. New York has one of the best one-two punches in the league with Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson, who are both shooting over 40% from deep and over 53% from inside the arc this season. The Knicks aren’t slouches on defense either, allowing the eighth-fewest PPG in the NBA (110.8) and without Davis, too much will fall on LeBron James for Los Angeles to keep up with this mighty New York offense.