Best NBA Player Props Today: Brooks Brings It Against Grizzlies

Prop bet #1: No pickle for Dill

All of my bets on Dillon Brooks this season have been on his points prop, but on Wednesday, we're taking a slightly different approach here. Will Brooks have an extra bounce in his step and be in attack mode on offense as he takes on the Grizzlies? Absolutely. Do I expect Ime Udoka to run a couple of extra actions, and Fred VanVleet to be looking for Brooks more than usual? Of course. From a team chemistry standpoint, you know this is personal for Brooks, so there's no doubt the Rockets want to help him succeed, specifically against the Grizzlies.

While all of this is true, I'm attacking Brooks' assists prop instead of his points prop because I believe we have a stronger edge in these numbers. All the reasons I mentioned above will lead to Brooks having more opportunities on offense, and that isn't strictly tied to his points prop. More touches and actions mean more opportunities to pass the ball as well, and Brooks' assists prop hasn't adjusted for the occasion, in my opinion.

Brooks' assists prop almost always trades with a total of 1.5, but the juice is more in the -130 range. On Wednesday, we're seeing it trade at +100, which would grab my attention even if he wasn't playing against the Grizzlies. If I'm expecting extra touches for Brooks on offense, how do I not get after this +100 price point?

Brooks is projected to have exactly two assists against the Grizzlies, which means we can price the Over 1.5 assists at -135, but it's available at BetMGM at +100. You can see how the adjustment from the normal -130 juice to +100 plays a big role in this wager; it's essentially our entire edge.

Dillon Brooks prop: Over 1.5 assists (+100 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #2: Guns & Roziers

Terry Rozier and the Hornets just played the Heat on Monday and had 13 assists against Jimmy Butler and company. That marks Rozier's third game with 13 assists in his last five starts, and he's gone Over his assists total in five straight games.

Have I convinced you to consider the Under yet? For starters, in two of those games, Rozier had a total of 6.5 and finished with seven assists. So, if we were using Wednesday's total of 7.5, he would have only gone Over the total in three of his last five games.

I understand that nobody might be eager to hit the button on this Under because he just surpassed it against the Heat on Monday. However, if you're offering a total of 7.5 with reduced juice (-106) on the Under against the Heat, I'll take it. Rozier's first game without LaMelo Ball in the lineup had him trading with a total of 5.5 assists. This total is now two full assists higher, and I just think that's too much for Rozier.

The fact that Rozier had 13 assists on Monday against the Heat also makes me more comfortable with an Under bet here. Giving Erik Spoelstra a couple of days with film, you just know he will have different defensive coverages ready for Rozier, who torched them for 34 points and 13 assists. The Heat will be trying to suffocate Scary Terry so he can't get Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, and others involved in the game offensively.

Rozier is projected to have seven assists on Wednesday against the Heat, which means we can price the under 7.5 assists at -155, but it is available at BetRivers at -106. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 16%.

Terry Rozier prop: Under 7.5 assists (-106 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #3: Thrill Murray

If you don't know by now how I feel about a Dejounte Murray assists prop, it's consistently one of my favorite bets on the board when the numbers are in our favor, and on Wednesday, we have an edge.

We bet on Murray to go Over the total of 4.5 assists at -132 when the Hawks faced the Nets last week, and he surpassed the total with nine assists. I wasn't sure if we would get another crack at Murray's total in this 4.5 -130 to -140 range, but after only having three assists against the Denver Nuggets on Monday, Murray has seen his price lengthen back to the range where I'm hitting the button once again.

Murray just shouldn't be trading in this window with a total of 4.5 assists; the juice should be much higher on this total. Yes, he went Under on Monday with only three dimes, but that was on 14 potential assists. That means the opportunities were there for Murray, and this number is incorrectly adjusting based on the result of three assists versus the opportunity of the 14 potential assists.

Murray is projected to have 5.6 assists against the Toronto Raptors, which is well above the total of 4.5 assists and allows us to price the over 4.5 assists at -180.

Dejounte Murray prop: Over 4.5 assists (-140 at FanDuel)