The Indiana Pacers can sometimes get lost in the shuffle at the top of the East, but they’re bringing flashy scoring into tonight’s clash against a Houston Rockets team that’s sweating on a lengthy injury list.
Houston ran into a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander buzzsaw last night without several key starters, and my Rockets vs. Pacers predictions expect Indiana’s star guard to serve up fireworks of his own here.
Get closer to the action for this Tuesday, March 4 showdown with my NBA picks and betting tips.
Rockets vs Pacers prediction
My best bet
Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 assists (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
When the Indiana Pacers’ offense is humming, a surprise return to the Eastern Conference Finals doesn’t feel out of the question, and they’ve shown that threat with a 24-10 mark in their last 34 games.
Indiana has scored at least 120 points in five of its last seven outings, and I’m riding with that free-scoring form tonight against the Houston Rockets. The Over on 9.5 assists for Tyrese Haliburton comes at even odds, and that feels like great value for the Pacers’ offensive engine.
Haliburton’s 8.8 apg average this season is a drop-off after what we’ve seen over the last two years (10.4 and 10.9), but it still puts him fourth in the NBA in that category — and the arrow is pointing up. He’s finished with double-digit assists in five straight outings, including 12 dimes against the Chicago Bulls on Sunday.
His 3-point shooting surge has played a big part in that. He knocked down triples at a 46% clip in February and he’s 29-for-55 from downtown since February 12. That’s forced teams to take an extra step to contest the outside shot, opening more driving lanes for Haliburton to set up Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, and Myles Turner for open looks.
Then there’s the Houston end of the equation. The Rockets arrive at Gainbridge Fieldhouse with question marks over the health of Dillon Brooks and Amen Thompson. Without those perimeter pests, they had no answer for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last night in Oklahoma City as SGA poured in 51 points.
I see Haliburton adding to the pain for the visitors here with another playmaking masterclass.
Rockets vs Pacers same-game parlay
Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 assists
Pacers -3.5
Pascal Siakam Over 6.5 rebounds
The Pacers have owned this matchup in recent years, winning nine of the past 10 meetings and going 6-2-2 ATS in that span. I’m comfortable laying this small spread with a home team that’s rediscovered its mojo.
Meanwhile, it’s hard to know what lineups will be available to Ime Udoka tonight. I expect more of the Houston regulars to be on the court, but the visitors have lost seven in a row on the road to slide out of the Top 4 in the West.
I’m also taking a Siakam prop for the last leg of my SGP. His rebounding doesn’t get as much attention as his scoring, but Spicy P is coming off a steady 7.3 rpg average in February, and he’s grabbed 41 boards across his last five outings.
Siakam’s role next to Turner will be even more critical tonight if Alperen Sengun is cleared to play.
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Rockets vs Pacers odds
Rockets vs Pacers live odds
Rockets vs Pacers opening odds
- Spread: Houston +4 | Indiana -4
- Moneyline: Houston +159 | Indiana -181
- Over/Under: Over 230 | Under 230
Odds courtesy of bet365
Rockets vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Pacers are 18-9 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and they’ve won four of their last five home games.
- While Houston cruised to a 130-113 victory over Indiana back in November, the visitors are just 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 contests.
- Indiana is averaging 121.1 ppg in its last 15 games.
- The Rockets have served up three Unders in their last four contests, but they’ve hit the 3Q Over in 31 of their last 49 outings.
Rockets vs Pacers trend
The Over is 32-25-2 for the Pacers this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Pacers.
How to watch Rockets vs Pacers
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-4-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network - Indiana, Space City Home Network |
Rockets vs Pacers latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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