The Oklahoma City Thunder look like the most impressive team in the NBA to start this season. The new-look San Antonio Spurs do not look to be of that quality, no matter who their superstar might be.
Victor Wembanyama makes any game winnable for San Antonio, but there's no logic to doubting OKC until some flaw is shown on the court.
My Spurs vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks will take the easy route of betting on the home favorite, mostly because Oklahoma City has looked that dominant thus far. Tip comes at 9:30 ET on Wednesday, October 30.
Spurs vs Thunder prediction
My best bet
Thunder -12 (-112 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Sure, the Oklahoma City Thunder have played only one stiff foe, and even that one has looked lackluster thus far this season. How much can be gleaned from beating up on the flawed Nuggets, the should-be-tanking Bulls, and the lost-in-the-wilderness Hawks?
By no means should anyone crown Oklahoma City as the Western Conference champ already, but it needs to be acknowledged that the Thunder are not only 3-0 outright and 3-0 against the spread, but they are also exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by 13.3 points per game.
Oklahoma City was expected to be the class of the West, but the Thunder might be even better than that.
Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs have disappointed in two of three games, both outright and against the spread. Perhaps most notably, Victor Wembanyama has averaged 20 points per game, his scoring deflated by going just 4-for-18 from beyond the arc (22.2%).
The second-year star is not defined by his 3-point shooting, but when he's missing from deep, it unwinds San Antonio’s offense, especially when he is not cleaning up on the boards, too. In two of three games, Wembanyama has grabbed only single-digit rebounds.
He will find his own dominance this season. Do not doubt that. The Frenchman is too good not to.
He hasn’t yet, however, and tonight will not be the moment that dominance arrives this season. Oklahoma City is already flexing its own. The Thunder lead the NBA in defensive rating this season — hardly a surprise. By 8.5 points per 100 possessions — there’s the surprise.
That OKC defense is too good, no flaws have been found in the Thunder approach yet, and even this lofty spread does not scare off a value bet. San Antonio has not looked potent enough to cause even that minimal stress.
Spurs vs Thunder same-game parlay (SGP)
Thunder -12
Under 221.5
Victor Wembanyama Under 23.5 points
Each of these teams have played three games this season, with two apiece going Under their totals. On one side of the ball, credit the Thunder defense. On the other side, fault San Antonio's offense, No. 24 in offensive rating thus far.
Some of that ties to Wembanyama’s struggles, and with Chet Holmgren looking a bit stronger in 2024, Wembanyama should not be expected to break through tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Spurs vs Thunder odds
Spurs vs Thunder live odds
Get the latest Spurs vs. Thunder NBA odds.
Spurs vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: San Antonio +13.5 | Oklahoma City -13.5
- Moneyline: San Antonio +600 | Oklahoma City -900
- Over/Under: Over 222.5 | Under 222.5
Spurs vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Thunder opened as 13- or 13.5-point favorites, depending on your sportsbook, late on Tuesday, a number that dipped to -12.5 on Wednesday morning.
- That spread dipping is rather counter-intuitive. Neither team is on a back-to-back. In fact, OKC has an extra day of rest.
- This total opened at 222.5 on Tuesday evening and jumped down to 220.5 just before midnight.
Spurs vs Thunder trend
The Thunder went 3-1 ATS in this matchup last season, exceeding expectations by an average of 21.3 points in those three wins. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Thunder.
Spurs vs Thunder game info
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date: | Wednesday, 10-30-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Spurs vs Thunder latest injuries
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