The Minnesota Timberwolves appear to have survived a rash of injuries, sitting just percentage points away from the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference and a chance to escape the Play-In Tournament. After a 5-8 February, Minnesota has rattled off four straight wins, those four games coinciding with Julius Randle’s return from injury.
As a double-digit favorite against the San Antonio Spurs, that winning streak should continue.
My Spurs vs. Timberwolves predictions will focus on a side effect of Randle’s return. Here are my full NBA picks for this 8 p.m. ET tip on Sunday, March 9.
Spurs vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Jaden McDaniels Under 14.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels played 48 games together before Randle’s adductor strain. In them, McDaniels averaged just 10.5 points on 8.9 shots per game, playing as the Minnesota Timberwolves small forward, where he has started for years now.
And then in 13 games without Randle, McDaniels averaged 18.5 points on 14.8 shots. Clearly, working as the Timberwolves power forward better fit the fifth-year veteran’s offensive game.
It better fit his game in other regards, too. McDaniels averaged 8.4 rebounds in February, compared to 5.2 rebounds through the season’s first three-plus months. But now, Randle is back.
That is a good for Minnesota as far as 2025 hopes go. Randle takes some of the scoring workload off Anthony Edwards’ shoulders. Opponents cannot so easily double Edwards when Randle is creating his own shots. For as well as McDaniels played, his offense is not as sustainable.
Randle’s return has keyed a four-game winning streak — who cares who the opponents were when the Timberwolves lost to the Jazz in the game before Randle’s health. But in that stretch, McDaniels has returned to a more limited role, taking 12 or fewer shots in three of those games.
He is back at small forward, and that lineup shift will be only emphasized if Rudy Gobert also returns to the court after some back spasms have sidelined him of late.
McDaniels’ offensive abilities should be a part of Minnesota’s future, but they will be diminished for now.
Spurs vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Jaden McDaniels Under 14.5 points
Timberwolves team total Over 122.5
Timberwolves moneyline
In the four games since Randle’s return, Minnesota has fallen short of its team total twice, against Miami and Phoenix, while exceeding it against Charlotte and Philadelphia. Three of those games were routs, as tonight’s should be, including both of the latter Overs.
That thought process fits with an Over tonight, as the Timberwolves should rout the Spurs, as that 11.5-point spread makes clear.
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Spurs vs Timberwolves score prediction
Timberwolves 124, Spurs 106
This would be the third time in four games that Minnesota clears 120 points while covering the spread.
Spurs vs Timberwolves odds
Spurs vs Timberwolves live odds
Spurs vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: San Antonio +10 (-110) | Minnesota -10 (-110)
- Moneyline: San Antonio +350 | Minnesota -450
- Over/Under: Over 228 (-110) | Under 228 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Spurs vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as a 10-point favorite on Saturday, reaching -10.5 before night’s end and then jumping to -11 early on Sunday.
- Midday Sunday pushed this spread to -11.5, perhaps an indication that Gobert will be available.
- The total opened at 228 and spiked to 232 by the end of Saturday night and to 232.5 by Sunday morning.
- The total peaked at 233.5 and settled at 233 on Sunday.
Spurs vs Timberwolves trend
Minnesota has covered the spread in three of Julius Randle’s four games back in the lineup. Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Spurs vs Timberwolves
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
| Date | Sunday, 3-9-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network-SW, FanDuel Sports Network-NO, KARE, TSN |
Spurs vs Timberwolves latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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