It's NBA Rivals Week, so it's only fitting that Devin Booker and Luka Doncic will go head-to-head on Wednesday night, and we've searched through the NBA odds to find the best bet for this matchup.
I mean, is this even a rivalry? Doncic has owned Booker and the Phoenix Suns, and it continued on Christmas Day when Doncic dropped 50 points in a Dallas Mavericks victory.
Doncic staring at Booker when the Mavericks were up big in the Western Conference Finals has to be one of the better memes on NBA Twitter, but can Booker flip the narrative on Wednesday?
Find out who I'm backing in my free NBA picks for Suns vs. Mavericks on January 24.
Suns vs Mavericks odds
Suns vs Mavericks predictions
You have no idea how badly I wanted this best bet to focus on Luka Doncic or Devin Booker. I mean, it is NBA Rivals Week, after all, but I wouldn't be truly sharing my best bet with you if I didn't talk about these Grayson Allen odds.
I've been keeping a close eye on the Suns lately, and they've been near the top of my NBA League Pass rankings because I was interested in their NBA Finals odds. By the way, I did hit the button on them at +1600 at FanDuel over the weekend.
When you look at the stats, Allen is a role player, but when you watch the Suns play recently, he has evolved into much more than that for the Suns. Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal are all looking for Allen when they're driving and trying to create open looks for him from beyond the arc. Allen has the green light to shoot the ball.
A team solid at the point of attack has a hard time containing the Suns trio of Booker, Durant, and Beal. Now, imagine what that looks like for the Mavericks, who are weak at the point of attack.
The Mavericks' defense is going to consistently have to help on Booker, Durant, and Beal drives, creating wide-open looks from beyond the arc for Allen. When the Suns played the Mavericks on Christmas Day, Allen attempted 17 3-pointers. That's not a typo, seventeen.
There's also potential injury news looming for the Suns, which could provide a boost to our wager. Eric Gordon missed the Suns' previous game with a wrist injury and is questionable to play on Wednesday. If Gordon is out for the Suns, Allen will see heavy minutes and be leaned on as their primary floor spacer.
Allen is projected to have 2.8 made threes on Wednesday against the Mavericks, which means we can price the Over 2.5 made threes at -113, but it is available at +102 at Caesars. It might come across as a very small edge, but this probability gap is showing a positive expected value of 7%.
My best bet: Grayson Allen Over 2.5 made threes (+102 at Caesars)
Suns vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Grayson Allen Over 2.5 made threes
Grayson Allen Over 11.5 points
Kevin Durant Over 4.5 assists
My best bet for the Suns-Mavericks game is Allen Over 2.5 made threes, but I also favor the Over on his points prop, which is trading at 11.5. I ultimately decided to roll with the Over on made threes because I thought it offered the bigger probability gap with the pricing available at the sportsbooks.
I do believe that in this specific matchup with the Mavericks, if Allen is going over his points total, it will be done with the 3-point shot. That being said, I still like the Over on his points prop as well at 11.5, which is why I'm going to include it in this same game parlay.
If Allen is going to be shooting wide-open threes from beyond the arc, it will be because of the help defense the Mavericks will have to use on his teammates. When I look at the pricing and think about the matchup, I believe pairing the Over for Durant's assists prop with our best bet of Allen Over 2.5 made threes offers the best value. The Mavericks can't help everyone, and I don't love Booker's odds, with a total of 6.5.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Suns vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
The Suns opened as a 1.5-point favorite over the Mavericks on Wednesday at DraftKings, but we have since seen that line move to Suns -2.5. While Suns -2.5 is a consensus number in the market, several sportsbooks are showing increased juice on the Suns' side of the spread, so make sure to shop around for the best price.
The total opened at FanDuel at 241, and we have seen it drop half a point down to 240.5. DraftKings has the total trading at 240, and Caesars at 241, so make sure to do some shopping before buying into this market.
Suns vs Mavericks betting trend to know
The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 26 of their last 37 games at home (+15.20 Units / 38% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Mavericks.
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Suns vs Mavericks game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 24, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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