Thunder vs Bucks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Cream Rises to Top in Milwaukee

With Giannis Antetokounmpo set to return tonight, the Milwaukee Bucks put their title credentials to the test against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the No. 1 seed in the West.

The Bucks are still living in the Boston Celtics’ shadow in the East, but they went 2-1 without Giannis over the last week, including a 115-108 win over the Brooklyn Nets on Thursday behind 30 points from Damian Lillard.

That leaves the Thunder as underdogs in the latest NBA odds despite winning four in a row and cruising past the Toronto Raptors on Friday night without needing top gear.

Both teams are eyeing deep playoff runs, and I take a closer look at this Sunday, March 24 matchup with my free NBA picks for Thunder vs. Bucks.

Thunder vs Bucks odds

Thunder vs Bucks predictions

Two of the NBA’s most dynamic offenses collide here at Fiserv Forum. The stage is set for fireworks with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading an Oklahoma City Thunder attack that’s consistently torched defenses all year.

The Thunder scored 123 points effortlessly in Toronto last time out, and they’ve poured in at least 118 points in four straight games.

I see that trend continuing tonight against a Milwaukee Bucks defense that’s allowing 117.2 ppg (22nd in the NBA) and is vulnerable to perimeter threats like SGA and Jalen Williams. That was one of the downsides of the Lillard-Jrue Holiday trade, and it’s asking a lot for Khris Middleton and Malik Beasley to bring the same intensity at the point of attack.

At the other end of the floor, Milwaukee’s length poses some unique challenges. Though Chet Holmgren has the offensive skillset to punish the Bucks, it’ll be worth watching how he holds up in the paint and on the boards against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez. The hosts should be able to walk into second-chance points.

The Bucks have gone past 120 points three times this month and leaned all the way into their offense without Giannis last weekend in a 140-129 victory against the Phoenix Suns.

I’m not counting on a repeat of that scoreline, but I like the Over here in a contest that should be dominated by star shot-makers.

My best bet: Over 232.5 (-110 at bet365)

Thunder vs Bucks same-game parlay

Over 232.5

Thunder moneyline

Damian Lillard Over 3.5 made 3s

+625 at bet365

While it’s Milwaukee’s title chances that are under the brightest spotlight here, this also feels like a statement game for OKC. The Thunder have revealed a few flaws against the league’s more physical teams, and a win tonight would quiet some of those doubts.

I’m expecting a serious, all-in performance from the visitors. They’ve been able to conserve energy in recent victories over the Raptors, Utah Jazz and Memphis Grizzlies, and this is a spot for their A-game.

With the Thunder winning their last three road games and posting a 21-13 record away from Paycom Center, I see Gilgeous-Alexander guiding OKC to a narrow win here.

I’m also jumping on a Damian Lillard prop. Dame picked up plenty of the slack while Antetokounmpo was out, and he did a lot of his damage from downtown. 

Dame has knocked down four or more 3-pointers in seven of his last nine contests, with 11 triples across his last two outings.

There aren’t many better shooters than Lillard when he’s in this kind of rhythm and I’m taking the Over on 3.5 makes from beyond the arc tonight.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Thunder vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis

This is Sunday’s marquee matchup, and the Bucks enter as a 2-point favorite. That seems reasonable given Milwaukee’s impressive 28-7 mark at home, but it’s worth remembering that this would be Antetokounmpo’s first game back after a hamstring injury.

There are still questions about this Milwaukee defense, especially against a perimeter-heavy team like OKC. With no meaningful head-to-head battles to rely on — these teams haven’t met since November 2022 — I’m picking this youthful Thunder group to rise to the moment.

The visitors are 8-2 in their last 10 games and Mark Daigneault can call on the kind of depth — Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Gordon Hayward — that Doc Rivers and the Bucks can only dream of.

Though the Bucks have won 27 of their last 33 home games, their losses at Fiserv Forum have had a similar theme — opponents like the Minnesota Timberwolves and Cleveland Cavaliers with a strong defense and a top-tier scorer. OKC certainly fits that description.

The Bucks have cashed in the Over in three straight games and their offense should be turbo-charged with Giannis’ return.

While the Thunder have served up back-to-back Unders this week, the Over is 38-30-1 in their games this season and they’ll likely need to stretch out the minutes for SGA and Williams here.

Thunder vs Bucks betting trend to know

The first-half Over has hit in 50 of the Bucks’ last 85 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Bucks.

Thunder vs Bucks game info

Thunder vs Bucks latest injuries

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