Should we be considering the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers to be an NBA Finals preview?
Either Cleveland’s 10-game winning streak or Oklahoma City’s 15-game winning streak will be snapped tonight, and my Thunder vs. Cavaliers predictions see value in the road underdog.
Here are my NBA picks for the biggest matchup of the night, with tip coming at 7 p.m. ET on January 8.
Thunder vs Cavaliers prediction
My best bet
Thunder moneyline (+120 at bet365)
My analysis
The basketball —and gambling — communities do not give the Cleveland Cavaliers enough credit.
The Cavs are 31-4. Sure, they have not produced in a postseason yet, but this is also their first season with Kenny Atkinson at the helm. Also, they are still 31-4. Sure, their biggest superstar is the underappreciated Donovan Mitchell, but the five-time All-Star is enjoying the second-best effective field-goal percentage of his career while adding nearly an assist to his best such season. Also, they are still 31-4.
Fine, Cleveland has only the No. 8 defensive rating in the NBA this season, although it is paired with the No. 1 offensive rating. Also, the Cavs are still 31-4.
However, the basketball —and gambling — communities do recognize just how outstanding the Oklahoma City Thunder are.
They have a better point differential this season than the Cavaliers (+12.1 to +11.8) and are on a 15-game winning streak that features wins against the Celtics, Knicks, the healthy Mavs, and the Pacers.
OKC has the No. 1 defensive rating by more than a bucket and, as a result, the No. 1 net rating (+12.1 to Cleveland’s +11.5).
The thought that puts the Thunder value over the top tonight is they are not just winning, but they are also covering the spread and covering easily. In this 15-game winning streak, Oklahoma City is 13-1-1 ATS. The loss came as a 13.5-point road favorite at Charlotte, winning by just 12 points.
In this 15-game winning streak, the Thunder are exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 7.3 points, even including the sole ATS loss as well as the push.
Cleveland comes close but does not quite dazzle at that rate. In their 10-game winning streak, the Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS, exceeding expectations by an average of 7.3 points, including the three ATS losses.
Oklahoma City’s ability to consistently exceed expectations against stiffer competition warrants more faith tonight, and with a spread this close, let’s jump to the moneyline thanks to the full 25 cents better in price.
Thunder vs Cavaliers same-game parlay
Thunder moneyline
Under 230.5 points
Donovan Mitchell Under 22.5 points
A fun coincidence of this Thunder streak is tonight will mean they have faced the top-three teams in the Eastern Conference in their last three games, already notching a 13-point win against the Celtics and a 10-point win against the Knicks.
Both those games fell short of their totals, the win against Boston decisively so. Oklahoma City is already a team with a strong Under tendency (21 of 36 games this season have cashed the Under), and that defense dials up against the stiffest competition to help the Thunder deliver a message.
That defense is particularly suited to stymie perimeter scorers, unfortunate news for Donovan Mitchell tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Thunder vs Cavaliers odds
Thunder vs Cavaliers live odds
Thunder vs Cavaliers opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City +2.0 | Cleveland -2.0
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City +110 | Cleveland -130
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 | Under 227.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Cavaliers spread and Over/Under analysis
- With both teams on ample rest, this spread opened Tuesday afternoon with Oklahoma City a two-point underdog. It climbed to +3 overnight before settling at +2.5.
- The line moved back to +3 during the early lunch hour before falling to where it began, +2.
- The total opened at 227.5 and fell to 225.5 on Tuesday evening before jumping back to 227.5. The overnight then pushed this total to 228.5 by morning, climbing to 230 and 230.5 midmorning.
Thunder vs Cavaliers trend
The Thunder are not just on a 15-game winning streak; they have gone 13-1-1 ATS in that time. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Cavaliers.
How to watch Thunder vs Cavaliers
| Location: | Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Wednesday, 1-8-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Thunder vs Cavaliers latest injuries
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