The Oklahoma City Thunder escaped by the skin of their teeth in Wednesday’s narrow win over the Nets, but OKC will look for a better showing in Friday’s tilt with the Atlanta Hawks.
Atlanta limps home after a blowout loss to the Heat, and the Hawks have lost three of four since returning from the All-Star break.
My Thunder vs. Hawks predictions expect Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to deliver a big performance on the road.
Read my NBA picks to see why you should take the Over on his combo prop.
Thunder vs Hawks prediction
My best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 43.5 points+rebounds+assists (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
It’s no surprise that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite to win MVP this season. His team has the best record in the West, and he’s averaging a career-high 43.7 PRA behind averages of 32.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 6.1 assists.
Gilgeous-Alexander has hit the Over on this line in just 26 of 57 matchups this season, but he’s done it in two of his last three and gets a phenomenal matchup on Friday.
Over the last seven, the Atlanta Hawks have allowed 27.1 points, 5.4 assists and 8.7 dimes to opposing PGs.
He delivered a 35/11/9 line against the Hawks when he faced them in October, and he’s averaged 33.8 points, 8.6 rebounds and seven dimes across his last five meetings with Atlanta, good for 49.4 PRA.
Atlanta is second in pace this season, and the Oklahoma City Thunder is seventh. The Hawks’ defensive rating is 16th this season (113.8), but it’s dipped to 23rd over the last seven (116.2).
The Hawks have allowed the fourth-most points per game to opponents at 119.2 on the season, and over the last seven, the Hawks have been even more generous by allowing 120.7.
If the productive stat lines and elite matchup don’t get you excited about SGA’s combo prop, his recent production should. Across his last 16 outings, Gilgeous-Alexander has stepped it up a notch with an average of 45.8 PRA.
He’s hit the Over seven times in that span and posted at least 40 PRA four more times.
I expect tonight’s matchup to be high-scoring, and so do our featured sportsbooks. The point total of 241 is the second-highest of the season for the Thunder. Oklahoma City has played in 13 games with a point total set at 230 or higher.
In those games, SGA has averaged 45.8 PRA and hit the Over seven times.
Thunder vs Hawks same-game parlay
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 43.5 points+rebounds+assists
Over 241
Onyeka Okongwu Over 22.5 points+rebounds
The Thunder have hit the Over 31 times in 59 games, and the Hawks have done it in 33 of 59. Both teams rank in the top 8 in most Overs this season.
The Hawks have hit the Over in 17 of 27 at home, and the Thunder have done it in 14 of 28 on the road. Atlanta is 14-8 to the Over against Western Conference opponents.
The Hawks have hit the Over in seven of their last 10, and the Thunder have done it in four straight.
Onyeka Okongwu is averaging 22.5 PRA this season, so we’re just looking for an average performance tonight. Fortunately, thanks to an increased workload, he’s been far better than average.
Okongwu has started 18 straight games and averaged 25.9 PRA in that span.
He’s hit the Over on this line in just 24 of 52 games this season, but 11 of those have come across his last 18 starts. The Thunder have allowed a whopping 45.4 PRA to opposing centers across their last seven.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Thunder vs Hawks odds
Thunder vs Hawks live odds
Thunder vs Hawks opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -12.5 (-110) | Atlanta +12.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City (-650) | Atlanta (+475)
- Over/Under: Over 241 (-110) | Under 241 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oklahoma City is 35-20-4 ATS.
- Atlanta has covered the spread in 28 of 59 games.
- The Thunder are 31-26-2 to the Over.
- The Hawks have hit the Over in 33 of 59 games.
Thunder vs Hawks trend
The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 31 games (+13.20 Units / 39% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Hawks.
How to watch Thunder vs Hawks
| Location | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia |
| Date | Friday, 2-28-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network-Oklahoma, FanDuel Sports Network SE-Atlanta |
Thunder vs Hawks latest injuries
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