The Minnesota Timberwolves sent a message with their Game 1 win against the Denver Nuggets, stealing home-court advantage in this long-awaited conference semifinal matchup. More noticeably, the Timberwolves won Game 1 in a fashion that seemed repeatable, with only Anthony Edwards scoring more than 20 points in the win.
Despite Edwards’s dominance, we're backing the longest-tenured Wolf in tonight's Timberwolves vs Nuggets predictions.
Ant’s dominance should create an edge to target in Game 2, one more cautious than betting on Minnesota to keep its winning streak going in our free NBA picks before the tip on Monday, May 6.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets predictions
My best bet
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 18.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The national media have finally caught on: Anthony Edwards is ready for this moment. The 22-year-old is confident enough to take tough shots in a playoff atmosphere and calm enough to make them. He went 17-of-29 for 43 points to make it clear the defending champions do not have a defensive answer for him.
Some of that ties to Jamal Murray’s nagging calf. He cannot keep up with Edwards, nevermind Mike Conley. The Denver Nuggets cannot hide Murray; he is too important to the offense to sit, and the bench lacks options to lessen any worry.
Some of it also ties to Edwards’ being too strong for the Nuggets’ best defender, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and too fast for their usual contingency plan in those moments, Aaron Gordon. Denver learned the hard way in Game 1 that it has no choice but to send double-teams at Edwards. There is no defender to stop him, and when he is left to choose his defender via switches on screens, he exploits Murray’s lack of explosion.
Sending double-teams at Edwards will work to Karl-Anthony Towns’ benefit. If Gordon puts his attention elsewhere at all, as he likely will be directed to with Edwards’s effectiveness, then Towns will have his own mismatches to exploit. If the Nuggets get caught in a defensive rotation, the Minnesota Timberwolves will gladly make an extra pass to get an open 3 for the best-shooting big man in NBA history.
Denver’s defense has no answer for Edwards — there are few in the NBA — and trying to slow the blossoming superstar should create more opportunities for Towns, every bit Edwards’s equal as a scorer, even if not as dynamic.
That began to show in Game 1’s third quarter, when Towns poured in 11 points in the first four minutes of the second half, on his way to ending with 20 points on just 13 shots. Edwards is more than willing to make the right pass in the postseason, and as the Nuggets commit to forcing the ball out of his hands, it should find Towns more than anyone else.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets same-game parlay (SGP)
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 18.5 points
Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 assists
Timberwolves +5.5
The Nuggets appeared willing to let Edwards beat them in Game 1, his second straight game with 40+ points in these playoffs and fourth out of five with 30+. He has burst onto the scene, but do not overlook how well-rounded his game has been in these pivotal moments. Edwards has averaged 7.8 rebounds in five games, and before Saturday, he was averaging 6.25 assists.
Grabbing Edwards at Over 5.5 rebounds makes plenty of sense, but adding his assists prop to this same-game parlay specifically makes more sense. Towns scoring will come from Edwards moving the ball; the two are correlated to that extent.
And if both are humming, it is hard to see Minnesota not staying within two buckets of Denver.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets odds
Timberwolves vs Nuggets live odds
Get the latest Timberwolves vs Nuggets NBA playoff odds for Game 2.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +5.5 | Denver -5.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota +196 | Denver -222
- Over/Under: Over 208.5 | Under 208.5
Timberwolves vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- After the Timberwolves’ Game 1 win, this spread opened with Denver favored by 5, half a point greater than the Game 1 spread closed. Then this Game 2 number moved to -5.5 by the end of Saturday night.
- The total opened at 207.5 or 208, depending on your sportsbook, a marked departure from the Game 1 pregame total of 210.5. The Game 2 total fell further to 206 on Sunday afternoon.
- Minnesota has the best defense in the NBA, one that has now held its opponent to fewer than 100 points in three of five postseason games, so the total dropping does not logically align with the Timberwolves’ becoming bigger underdogs.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets trend
Denver is 2-4 against the spread in the playoffs, including losing three straight games ATS. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs Nuggets.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Monday, 5-6-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Timberwolves vs Nuggets latest injuries
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