Warriors vs Mavericks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: No Answer for Doncic on Wednesday

To paraphrase Nathaniel Hawthorne, teams are always rising and falling in the NBA.

A week ago, it appeared that the Dallas Mavericks were headed for disaster, dropping three straight winnable games and scuttling their chances of a Top-6 seed. At the same time, the Golden State Warriors appeared to be on an inexorable rise from the bottom of the play-in race, determined at least to get out of the win-or-go-home part of the bracket.

Now Dallas is back to their winning ways and Golden State must soldier on without an injured Steph Curry. With their fortunes now flipped, the NBA odds have the Mavs listed as solid favorites on Wednesday, March 13.

My NBA picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Mavericks believe that this version of Golden State will struggle to defend Luka Doncic.

Warriors vs Mavericks odds

Warriors vs Mavericks predictions

The Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks have played in a number of instant classics in recent years, but I believe Wednesday’s matchup won’t be among them.

Steph Curry’s ongoing absence changes the entire tenor of the matchup and gives the Mavericks a clear edge against their old foes that go well beyond the listed line. Luka Doncic should dominate offensively in this matchup, and without Steph, I don’t believe the Warriors have enough firepower to keep up.

Both Draymond Green and Kyrie Irving were out of action when these two teams played for the first and only time so far this season. While the Warriors will be glad to have Draymond to help against Doncic this time around, the presence of Green will not be enough for this version of Luka.

In previous matchups, the Warriors were wary of guarding Doncic with Green. Draymond instead was in active help, ready to defend the paint against Luka’s drives. But this wasn’t particularly effective.

Doncic’s pace is languid and hard to read, and his passing ability makes the timing of a double team a life-or-death matter for the defense. Come too early and he’s generated an open corner three, but come too late and he’s in the paint, drawing a foul or floating it in.

But the real worry is that Doncic doesn’t need to work that hard this season to score. Instead of pounding the ball into the paint, he’s grown so much as a 3-point shooter that he can use far less energy and still get a good shot on any possession.

This part of his game looks eerily like prime James Harden. Luka will pick out the opposing big man or slowest defender, call for a pick, get him isolated one-on-one, and step back for three. When these teams played in December, Doncic repeatedly dragged Trayce Jackson-Davis onto the perimeter, hitting step back after step back right in his eye.

Then again, putting two on the ball against Luka is perilous. His teammates can shoot for the most part or are incredibly roll men like Derrick Lively II. The odds of hitting Luka with a trap so good that he can’t make a quality pass out of it are almost zero.

The primary options to guard Luka are also not promising.

Klay Thompson has lost a major step as an on-ball guy, while Jonathan Kuminga has yet to achieve the experience and discipline to avoid getting frustrated by Luka’s attack. Meanwhile, Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney have both fallen off this year significantly. Chris Paul, previously regarded as one of the best defensive guards in the Association, has also been a defensive liability for a few years now.

All of them are food against Luka, who is leading the NBA in scoring 34.6 points per game with an absurd 62.4% true shooting.

I like the value of the spread for today because I worry about the possibility of a blowout. The Warriors have been susceptible to total collapses over the past couple of seasons, including the utter demolition they received at the hands of the Boston Celtics recently.

My best bet: Mavericks -6.5 (-115 at Betway)

Warriors vs Mavericks same-game parlay

Mavericks -6.5

P.J. Washington Under 1.5 threes

Jonathan Kuminga Under 0.5 threes

50% boost available

+485 +728 at DraftKings

One of the primary reasons the Mavericks felt comfortable moving off Grant Williams at the trade deadline was because they were acquiring P.J. Washington. They believed that Washington could stretch the floor from the forward spot as effectively as Williams, in addition to providing a little more juice off the bounce.

The problem with that theory was that while Washington has a reputation as a stretch big, he doesn’t have much of a track record as one. PJ is a career 35.6% 3-point shooter and is only marginally better on open spot-ups.

While Luka can create P.J. plenty of quality looks, he’s shown little ability to knock them down. In his last five games, he’s hit more than one three exactly once and is shooting just 29.6% over that span.

Shots for everyone on the Warriors won’t be quite as open without Curry running circles around the opposing defense, which is why I’m also taking the Under on Kuminga’s shooting prop.

Kuminga hasn’t made a three in eight of his last 10 games and is down to just 23.5% efficiency from downtown during that period. Even if that rate is overstating things, fading Kuminga's threes at plus money makes it a clear value proposition.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis

Dallas opened as high as -8.5 points favorites but that’s dropped to between -7.5 and -6.5 at most sportsbooks.

The Mavs have recovered from their three-game skid to now win three straight. Their last game against the Bulls was perhaps the most impressive when they dominated the first quarter 44-16.

Without Steph, these Warriors are closer to those Bulls than they’d like to admit. While they have a general infrastructure I trust more to hold up against the Mavs, they’re just as susceptible to the inevitable Luka avalanche and have little offensive firepower to punch back.

I don’t put much stock in the Warriors against the spread trends while Steph is out. While James Harden is famous for saying that “he’s not a system player, he is the system” that more accurately sums up Curry’s importance to Golden State.

Everything they do is built around his gravity and movement, and his resiliency and self-belief buoy the entire team. Without Curry, I can see the Warriors folding to an early Dallas barrage and never recovering.

Wednesday’s total opened at 238.5 and has been dropping after early action comes in on the Under. At the time of writing, it is available as low as 232.5 at some sportsbooks.

The Mavs have been a Top-5 offense all season long, but their 123.3 offensive rating over the past two weeks is substantially better than their year-long rate. Even with Draymond back in the fold for an extended run now, the Warriors rank just 17th in defensive efficiency. That’s a far cry from their dynasty days when they were regularly among the best three defenses in the NBA.

The question is whether the Warriors themselves can score enough. The Mavs' defense has plenty of places to attack, but it’s hard to have confidence in the Warriors without Steph.

Warriors vs Mavericks betting trend to know

Dallas is 24-16 ATS in games played on equal rest this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Mavericks.

Warriors vs Mavericks game info

Warriors vs Mavericks latest injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic