It's round two of the Auburn Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide, which means round two of one of the best rivalries in college athletics.
The Tide held serve in the first meeting between these teams as they won on their home court. Bama will look to make it 2-for-2 as when it heads to Auburn in front of what will be a more hostile environment. With the Tigers playing as the hosts, college basketball odds have labeled them as the favorites for tonight's affair.
What's the best bet in this one? Find out in my free college basketball picks for Alabama vs. Auburn on February 7.
Alabama vs Auburn best odds
Alabama vs Auburn picks and predictions
The story in the first matchup between these two teams was mainly about the ball pressure Alabama put on the Auburn guards. It enabled the Tide to force nine turnovers, and the overall eye test says they forced the Tigers to make many mistakes that significantly changed the game. Auburn will try to flip that script in the second matchup, and there's reason to think it will succeed.
The turnover aspect is the story I'm focusing on here. I can't separate these teams strongly enough to make a total or a side good enough for a best bet. I found value in the prop market, and my best bet will be Mark Sears Over 2.5 turnovers at -150.
The juice could be more attractive here, but the number has some value when you look at a raw statistical breakdown. In games that required Sears to play over 30 minutes, he's committed three or more turnovers in exactly half.
Now break that down to a second layer, like teams that have produced turnovers at a clip of 19% or higher, and that number goes to 75%. In games against Arizona, LSU, Tennessee, and this Auburn team, Sears exceeded this number thrice. From that perspective, the implied probability of 58% from oddsmakers doesn't seem that bad, does it?
That 19% turnover rate may seem arbitrary, but it's far from it.
It represents the cut-off of where teams would land in the top third of the country in turnovers forced. It's also a number Auburn exceeds, forcing turnovers at a clip of 19.7% per game. Considering that, it should be no surprise Sears had five turnovers when he faced Auburn in the prior matchup.
Part of that is Sears' usage rate on a game-to-game basis. He loses the ball more because he's asked to do a lot for the Tide. His usage rate in conference play has ballooned to 28%, one of the highest for any player in the league. Against Auburn, that rate was over 30%.
In nearly any game flow, Sears is going to be in a position where he's likely coughing up the ball a few times. We are not reliant on either team winning the game for this to have a better chance of cashing, which is important in this matchup of two closely matched teams. Take this one with confidence tonight.
My best bet: Mark Sears Over 2.5 turnovers (-150 at theScoreBet)
Alabama vs Auburn same-game parlay
Rylan Griffen Under 9.5 points
Mark Sears Under 3.5 assists
Mark Sears Over 20.5 points
Rylan Griffen had a breakout game when these two teams met in the prior matchup. He scored 17 points, tied for the most he's scored in conference play this season. Auburn Head Coach Bruce Pearl has a good track record when facing a team for the second time. I'll back him by having a heightened focus on slowing him down.
The second and third legs are directly tied together. After he dished out a season-high eight assists in the first matchup, you can bet the scout here is limiting Sears' playmaking ability. That's what beat Auburn in the first matchup.
This goes back to Pearl improving on what he learned in the first outing. With that in mind, what the Tigers will concede is Sears' scoring ability. He's gone Over this number in five straight games, and the expected approach of allowing Sears to get his while slowing others down lends itself to a sixth straight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Alabama vs Auburn spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread of Auburn -5.5 feels right and is exactly what I projected. I lean toward Auburn but would see if I get a number of three or better in-game.
It's hard to believe the Tigers don't deliver in this spot. There are three key offensive spots where Auburn can attack a weak Alabama defense. One of those that should prove decisively is on cutters. Auburn is statistically the fifth-best cutting team in college basketball, and Bama is among the worst in the SEC defending here.
This total opened at 163 and has seen some slight movement to the over at most books, settling at 163.5. The first matchup between these two went Under a total of 161.5. The prior two matchups before that one had both gone Over fairly easily. Those recent trends add to the cloudy dynamic at play.
Alabama vs Auburn betting trend to know
Auburn has hit the first half moneyline in 22 of its last 32 games (+13.60 Units / 7% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Auburn.
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Alabama vs Auburn game info
| Location: | Neville Arena, Auburn, AL |
| Date: | Wednesday, February 7, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Alabama vs Auburn key injuries
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