Alex Karaban Props & Odds: Purdue's Edey Forces Change of Approach

Prop bet #1: Ain’t in the paint

Alex Karaban is going to run into traffic versus the Purdue Boilermakers. The UConn Huskies forward shoots the bulk of his shots around the rim, but with 7-foot-4 Zach Edey patrolling the paint and plenty of bodies battling inside, those clean looks will be hard to come by.

Connecticut’s best approach is to space the floor in the halfcourt and even play a quicker, smaller lineup to push Purdue and beat the Boilermakers down the floor before they set up the halfcourt defense. That could make Karaban a tough fit.

His scoring output has been up and down in March Madness, averaging 10.6 points after scoring 14 versus Alabama. The Crimson Tide are a much softer defense than Purdue and Karaban added four of those tallies from the foul line. The Boilermakers are disciplined and draw the eighth-fewest whistles in the country.

Player projections for Karaban call for less than 13 points over 30 minutes of floor time. He put up scores of eight and nine points against the methodical, defense-first styles of San Diego State and Northwestern, and tonight's tempo will be in that same range.

Prop markets have this point total at 12.5 O/U with the Under juiced as heavily as -130 and sharper sportsbook also tacking on the tax for the Under. You can shop and find that same bet as low as -114 at BetRivers sportsbooks.

Points prop: Under 12.5 Points (-114 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #2: Passing fad

Karaban isn’t known for his playmaking. So much so, that many sportsbooks aren’t posting a prop for his assist total against Purdue tonight.

The shops that are offering an Over/Under on his assists have the number at 1.5 O/U with the Under as expensive as -208 in March Madness odds. Player projections call for 1.4 assists over 30 minutes.

Game script doesn’t work well for the Over 1.5 assist, as this will be a slower tempo and a defensive grinder of a game. Karaban is averaging just 1.2 assists for the tournament but has dished out two in two of UConn’s five NCAA games and has two dimes in four of the Huskies’ eight postseason games overall, going back to the Big East tournament.

Maybe I’m just being contrarian for the sake of it, but there’s a shot Karaban will drop two or more tonight. I mean, it’s only two assists. 

The Boilermakers are big in the middle, so Karaban’s not going to get easy looks inside. That means more kick-outs to spot up shooters on the perimeter. The Huskies rank among the best “catch-and-shoot” 3-point attacks in the country, ranked No. 6 in points per play at ShotQuality Bets.

And when Purdue throws a zone at UConn — and it will — Karaban will either be a high-post cutter or working from the perimeter, making him the primary passer to 7-footer Donovan Clingan. I’ve watched Karaban throw pinpoint lob passes over the top of the defender to a sealing Clingan numerous times this season.

With the Under asking so much, you can find the Over 1.5 assists as high as +160. I’ll bite.

Assist prop: Over 1.5 assists (+160 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Total UConn-trol

The Huskies don’t give up many free possessions, rated 17th in turnovers per game (9.6) for the season. 

Connecticut has been even cleaner in the NCAA Tournament, dropping those mistakes to just 6.8 giveaways a game, including only four turnovers in an up-tempo outing with Alabama.

Karaban isn’t a primary ball handler, so his turnover count is pretty low to begin with. He’s tossed it away only once in the five NCAA Tournament games and averaged 0.9 turnovers over 31 minutes a contest for the season.

Purdue is not a high-pressure defense, relying on funneling opponents into Zach Edey's massive wingspan and ranked near the bottom of Div-I in turnovers per game (only 9.5 for 338th). Offensively, Purdue is a plodding pace and will run possessions deep into the shot clock, limiting the amount of time Karaban and UConn have with the basketball  (presenting fewer chances for turnovers). 

With a game this tight (it's the shortest spread UConn has drawn since March 6 vs. Marquette), coach Dan Hurley will be emphasizing ball control. And despite being a sophomore, Karaban has the big game experience to calm his nerves better than most underclassmen, having been here before (and he made those mistakes with two turnovers vs. SDSU last year). 

DraftKings is the only book offering an Over/Under on total turnovers, listing Karaban’s number at 0.5 with the Over a -175 favorite. It’s a strange market, but the Under +130 is worth a sprinkle considering his steady play and the matchup with passive Purdue.

Turnover prop: Under 0.5 Turnovers (+130 at DraftKings)