The Baylor Bears are well-positioned for the NCAA Tournament, but they may face a problem when they get there: Baylor is atrocious away from home. The Bears are just 4-8 outright and 2-9-1 against the spread when not playing in Waco.
That shines a light on tonight’s good news, that they are at home against the Arizona Wildcats. Maybe that is not enough incentive to talk my Arizona vs. Baylor predictions into backing the home favorites, but these free college basketball picks will at least trust the Bears to set the terms at tip at 10 ET on Monday, February 17.
Arizona vs Baylor prediction
My best bet
Under 152 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
As only 1.5-point favorites, putting faith in Baylor simply because it is at home may be a bit bold. The Bears are just 7-5 ATS at home, hardly a strong enough record to inspire total trust in a spread within a bucket. Going 12-1 outright is notable, but six of those were against distinctly lesser opponents before conference play began.
But the home success cannot be dismissed entirely. Baylor is comfortable at home, certainly more so than on the road. And as such, some confidence can be had that the Bears will control the terms of this game.
Arizona prefers a faster pace, ranking No. 2 in Big 12 play in tempo. Running up and down the court helps hide the fact that the Wildcats are not a quality shooting team, hitting just 31.9% of their 3-pointers, No. 11 in the Big 12. That pace lets them race past the arc, taking only 35.2% of their field goals from long distance, the 12th-lowest rate in the conference.
Baylor should put the brakes on all of that. The Bears rank No. 14 in the Big 12 in tempo, preferring to shorten a game and trust their efficient offense to prevail. Most notable in this design, Baylor struggles defending the 3, ranking No. 11 in the Big 12 in rate of 3s taken against and No. 11 in opponents’ 3-point percentage, at 34.3%.
Those flaws will matter much less against Arizona. A significant part of why the Wildcats do not take many 3s is because they do not make many 3s. As the Bears gladly give those up, that should largely lead to missed shots and empty possessions.
The combination of Baylor’s slowed pace and Arizona’s missed 3s should doom this game to fall short of its total, and the confidence in that slowed pace stems from the Bears’ broad success at home this season.
Arizona vs Baylor same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 152
KJ Lewis Over 0.5 made threes
Caleb Love Under 17.5 points
Baylor will give up looks from deep. It is somewhat by design. And tonight, in particular, it may be emphasized in the scouting report given Arizona’s struggles from deep.
Betting on KJ Lewis to make at least one 3-pointer is an unusual thought. He is 9-of-47 this season, including 4-of-25 in 14 conference games. Why in the world bet on him? In part because he should get looks tonight and in part because Lewis is 3-of-11 in his last four games, hitting a single 3-pointer in three of his last four games.
Doubting Caleb Love’s output is another bet on the Bears controlling the pace. Love excels in transition. He dictates the Wildcats’ pace. Remove that, and the point guard should struggle to score. He has already fallen short of this prop in each of his last three games.
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Arizona vs Baylor odds
Arizona vs Baylor live odds
Arizona vs Baylor opening odds
- Spread: Arizona +1.5 | Baylor -1.5
- Moneyline: Arizona +105 | Baylor -125
- Over/Under: Over 151.5 | Under 151.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Arizona vs Baylor betting trend to know
A week ago, Arizona was 14-9 ATS this season and 14-9 to the Over in totals. This week, though, the Wildcats have gone 0-2 ATS, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by six points and 12 points, and they have cashed two Unders by seven points and 17 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona vs. Baylor.
How to watch Arizona vs Baylor
| Location | Foster Pavilion, Waco, TX |
| Date | Monday, 2-17-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Arizona vs Baylor key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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