Do not be fooled by the Colorado Buffaloes’ recent success. While they have gone 8-2 against the spread in their last 10, that has largely been because they were keeping blowout losses just within the spread. In games as more reasonable underdogs, like today against the West Virginia Mountaineers, the Buffaloes have been regularly failing.
My Colorado vs. West Virginia predictions expect the Mountaineers to control this game, particularly their defense. Check out my college basketball picks before tip comes at 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 12.
Colorado vs West Virginia prediction
Who will win Colorado vs West Virginia?
While Colorado is on a two-game winning streak, both those wins came against TCU. That alone de-emphasizes the Buffaloes’ success. Colorado went 1-10 outright against the eight teams that went .500 or better in Big 12 play, losing those games by an average of 13.6 points. Only two of those games were even within single digits.
The sole victory came by two points at home against Baylor, not the most convincing of arguments that Colorado is a giant-slayer.
Meanwhile, West Virginia has won its last five games against teams that won fewer than half their Big 12 games.
My best bet
Colorado Team Total Under 60.5 (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
The West Virginia Mountaineers were built on their defense all season long. Before February 1, they ranked as the No. 13 defense in the country, per barttorvik.com, allowing 93.2 points per 100 possessions once adjusting for opponents. But in the last six weeks, the Mountaineers have leaned even further into their defense.
Since February 1, they have had the No. 2 defense in the country, behind only Maryland’s, giving up 90.6 points per 100 possessions. That timing coincides with West Virginia going 6-5 to creep onto the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble.
A struggle today could put that status back in jeopardy, so it should be trusted the Mountaineers will double down on what serves them best, their defense. Most pertinently, their aggressive defense.
West Virginia forced turnovers on 18.7% of opposing possessions in Big 12 play, the fifth-best rate in the conference, while giving up free throws at lower marks. The Colorado Buffaloes ranked last in the conference in offensive turnovers, coughing up the ball on 21.7% of possessions, with the majority of this being gifted steals.
Every single one of those moments will be an empty Buffaloes’ possession. If the Mountaineers can take the ball away on a fifth of possessions, they should keep Colorado well below this team total.
Colorado vs West Virginia same-game parlay (SGP)
Colorado Team Total Under 60.5
West Virginia -7
Javon Small Over 18.5 points
Betting West Virginia to cover this modest spread along with senior guard Javon Small to score at least 19 points is a correlated thought beyond the obvious. The value hinges on the reality that Small should handle the ball in any late-game situations when Colorado may be intentionally fouling.
He shoots 88.1% from the free throw line. He has cleared this prop in five of the Mountaineers’ last 11 games, and in two of those moments, he did so in part thanks to making at least six free throws. Most pertinently, he scored 25 in a seven-point win against Central Florida to close the regular season, going 6-of-6 from the charity stripe.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Colorado vs West Virginia odds
Colorado vs West Virginia live odds
Colorado vs West Virginia opening odds
- Spread: Colorado +6.5 | West Virginia -6.5
- Moneyline: Colorado +230 | West Virginia -280
- Over/Under: Over 129.5 | Under 129.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Colorado vs West Virginia betting trend to know
Colorado went 0-5 against the spread this season when a three-bucket underdog, the spread between +6.5 and +9. Find more college basketball betting trends for Colorado vs. West Virginia.
How to watch Colorado vs West Virginia
| Location | T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Colorado vs West Virginia key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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